Israel updates

A number of things have happened since my last update. The arab list parties were banned, then unbanned. Yisrael Beiteinu is back above the threshold. Zehut seems to be staying above the threshold. Labour has pushed to third. And Blue & White is losing its lead.

Changes from last projection shown in brackets.

32 - Blue & White (-3)
29 - Likud (-1)
9 - Labour (+2)

7 - Arab Opposition (-2)

7 - UTJ (+-0)
7 - Union (+1)
6 - Right (+-0)
6 - Meretz (+-0)
6 - Shas (+1)
4 - Kulanu (-1) [see below]
4 - Arab List (+-0) [see below]

4 - Yisrael Beiteinu (+4) [see below]

4 - Zehut (+4) [see below]

you will notice this adds up to more than 120. This is because the parties that are, on average, making the threshold, will get 4 seats if they do so, but we've yet to have a poll where all 4 of these parties have met the threshold, and, since deadline day, only one poll where all 4 have failed to make the threshold. As such there is a lot of "mix and match" going on, and this seemed like the best way to present that data at this time.

The changes we are seeing are due to more voters looking at other options on the left. Meretz has polled as high as 8 in some recent polls, and Labour as high as 10. 

The end result of this, in terms of coalition formation, may be that the parties that do or do not make the threshold will have a huge role to play in who the next Prime Minister is.