Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Brexit, and update in Sweden

According to the vote yesterday, each party has the following number of voting MPs in or around Parliament right now:

314 con
251 lab
35 snp
11 ld
10 dup
4 pc
1 grn
8 ind

Without the DUP, there are 319 non-conservative MPs in the House. The DUP plus the Conservatives consist of 324 MPs. The DUP has said they will back the Conservatives in the vote of non confidence scheduled for today. As such it is unlikely that the VoNC will pass. It would take 3 tories to vote against their own government to defeat it; and doing so is extraordinarily unlikely as it would make these people pariahs and likely lose them a ton of personal friends and other such negative impacts. That also assumes every single non-tory MP will vote yes; there are reasons why this is not the case.

Three Independents voted with the government on Brexit. They are Stephen Lloyd, a former LibDem; Lady Hermon, Northern Ireland Independent, former UUP; and Frank Field a right-winger but former Labour MP.

It is possible some of all of them will support the government. Lady Hermon in particular may do so.

In Sweden meanwhile, government preparations are being finalized. The vote on the new government was delayed after protests from the Left party; but the latest reports are that the Left Party has agreed to allow the government to form, but has made clear threats that it will vote down the government in the future if they do not accept input from the party on key issues.

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