Tuesday, November 13, 2018

US Update and Maps!

In the Senate, Arizona has gone to the Democrats. Mississippi's senate race has seen consistent polling that when voters choose the Senator on November 27th that the incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith will win. The only poll that suggests otherwise is from the Mike Espy campaign itself. As such I'm marking that down as a GOP win.

This leaves only Florida undecided. Pro-Democratic county, Broward, has managed to, yet again, screw up hosting the election. Due to this it is likely the Republicans will take that seat. If they do the Senate balance will be 53-47. If the Democrats somehow win Florida, it will be 52-48. Both are gains for the Republicans over the current 51-49 balance.

In Georgia the Democratic Governor candidate is pushing for a second round of voting. She is up against the GOP Secretary of State, whose job it is to count the ballots. For there to be a second round the winner needs to take under 50% of the vote; but the Brian Kemp of the GOP is at 50.3%. While there are arguments about ballots yet uncounted, even if there were a second around, a Kemp victory is extremely likely; as such I'm counting this as a GOP win.

In Florida, the GOP again leads, but this time its not clear the screw ups in Broward were enough to tip the scale. Either way my read of the situation is that the GOP has the clear edge here and will manage a victory at the end of the day; as such I'm calling this for the GOP, at least, for now. This puts the final Governor balance at 27-23 in favour of the GOP.

In the House, the same 10 seats remain undeclared. Four favour the Democrats; CA10, NJ3, NY22, and UT4, while 6 favour the Republicans: CA39, CA45, ME2, GA7, NY27, and TX23. Maine's 2nd district, due to not being won by over 50% of the vote, is headed to a second round. Both Independent candidates are more left leaning from what I can gather meaning that it is likely the Democrats pick up this seat.

As such the most likely result, according to my read of the situation, is 232 Democrats and 203 Republicans.

The GOP has lost at least 32 seats in the House; but they did actually managed to 'gain' a few seats. In Minnesota, the GOP gained both districts 8 and 1, but lost both districts 3 and 2. This makes the state's election map appear more logical, as 8 and 1 were highly rural in nature. In Pennsylvania, which had its districts forcibly redrawn by court order, they gained district 14 while losing neighbouring district 17.

Every house seat the GOP has a lead in, including Maine's 2nd, has a GOP incumbent. The same is true for the 4 seats the Democrats currently lead in.

Lastly, maps!

Note the map without a label is the Senate, where Blue means both senators caucus with the Democrats; Purple is one each, and Red is two Republicans.

The last map may be important if the next Presidential election does not result in someone winning 270 electoral votes. The Republicans control the House in terms of number of state delegations (26), and as such, would be in the drivers seat for choosing the next President.


  1. In CA45, the Democrat was taken the lead, and in CA39 the lead for the Republican has dwindled to 700 votes and the trend line is clear that, barring a small miracle, the Democratic vote will continue to grew and they take both seats.

    1. states really need to change how they vote. It's very easy for a future dictator to convince people these late votes are fraud. The voting system needs to be beyond reproach.

  2. It's the states that have no excuse mail voting. They take a really long time to count, becuase they have to compare each signature on the envolope with that on the voter registration form. Since Republicans tend to be much older than the average Democrat, they are much more likely to vote on election day than the Democrats. This is why late returns tend to favor the Democrats

  3. Why is AZ purple, because its 5-4 Democrat? In that case shouldn't Florida be purple too since its 14-13 GOP?

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