Monday, November 12, 2018

Quick Updates


Democrats: 231 (4)
Republicans: 204 (6)

The numbers in brackets indicate seats where the winner may not yet be clear. They've been included in the total.

Republicans: 53 (fl, ms)
Democrats: 47 (az)

states in brackets are seats that are, again, not fully clear as to the final result.

Republican: 27 (fl, ga)
Democrats: 23

There was some speculation that Pelosi might not win the speaker election. After looking into some recent historical results, if the Democrats match their lest-unified speaker election (2015) then only 87% of their members would vote for the official candidate. This number is below the 204 the Republicans are expected to win. However; the second most messy speaker election saw 89.6% voting with the official candidate; a number higher than the total of Republicans. 


The leader of the Moderates is forming a government, one which will require a vote of confidence. He is looking to rely on unofficial support from the Swedish Democrats; but members of his own alliance are saying they plan to vote against this; which would likely send Sweden to another election. Polls suggest the resulting Parliament would by in large be mostly the same but with slightly different math. The left is up slightly, which could make it easier to form a left-centre government should such an election occur. 


Green support is still growing but may crest soon. The numbers are very bad for the SPD, who sit at 14% in the latest polls. 

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