Monday, November 19, 2018

Poland has (likely) stabilized into a 2 party state

Just a quick note about Poland.

Some may look at the polling for the next election, polling which shows PiS far in the lead, and assume Poland is a one-party state. To them I'd encourage them to look at polling for the prior election. Beyond this, to also look at polling for the election before that.

This is actually a pattern that is familiar.

Consider that, in Canada, in 1968, the Liberals took 45% of the vote, compared to 31% for the PC Party. 72 saw a split of 38%-35%, and 74 a split of 42%-35%. The PC Party managed to win 1979 despite losing 36%-40%, then lost the 1980 election 32%-44%, but won 1984 50%-28%. 1988 saw their re-election, 43%-32%.

This is the pattern of a two party system.

Local elections show this trend as well. The polish page for such elections (don't worry about the language, we are looking at the numbers and the maps) show the "Liberals" winning 6 regional assemblies VS 9 for the "Conservatives" The total number elected from all assemblies was 254 for the "Conservatives", 194 for the "Liberals" and 94 for all other parties combined.

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