Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Quebec Results

Election results are as follows:

74 - CAQ - 37.44%
32 - PLQ - 24.79%
10 - QS - 16.07%
9 - PQ - 17.07%
0 - PVQ - 1.69%
0 - PCQ - 1.47%
0 - NPDQ - 0.57%
0 - OTH - 0.90%


Map with a PQS - a merged PQ-QS party. Note CAQ loses its majority:

Map of Montreal (and area) showing the largest non-liberal party:

Distinct split between the urban core and more suburban fringes.

Interesting things to note:

The Conservative Party beat the NDP, but the Greens beat both of them.

QS beat the PQ in seat count.

QS was only 1% behind the PQ in vote count.

PQ did manage to hold on in Eastern Quebec

QS did manage to break out of Montreal, 4 of its 10 seats are outside of Montreal.

Liberals did not manage to hold on in the Eastern Townships. They went CAQ, save Sherbrooke, which went QS.

Shocker: CAQ did very well in Western Quebec winning 3 of the 5 Outaouais ridings.

And, of course, the CAQ won a majority government, beating the polls and taking 37% of the vote.

Why were the polls wrong?

My suspicion is low Anglophone turnout. If they were expected to make up, for example 20% of voters but only actually made up 15% of voters, it could explain the gap between the expected and seen PLQ numbers; which in turn explains the CAQ numbers. The numbers, however, don't seem to fully support that, with Anglophone ridings only have 10% less turnout than the rest of the province.

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