Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Quebec, in more detail

Lets start with maps, and then explain all of them!!

Our first map

This map shows weather the PQ or QS candidate preformed better in the election. If only PQ and QS candidates ran, and they took the same vote they did in the past election, this would be the results map. As you can see QS wins more seats (67 if I'm counting correctly)

This is very good news for QS and bad for the PQ. It basically means QS can serve as a PQ replacement in sort of a similar way that the Canadian Alliance served as a Progressive Conservative replacement Federally.

This map shows a boosted CAQ. It does not win many additional seats, in large part due to just how well it did in this past election; however it does make important gains in Laval.

This map shows a stronger Liberal vote. the party regains some territory it lost in the election, but this shows the areas it has truly lost out to the CAQ in with massive swings.

The PLQ problem was not, as I thought earlier, weak anglophone showings, but rather very weak showings in some of the most francophone ridings in the centre of Quebec. Rural voters really swung very heavily to the CAQ and the Liberals will have to work very hard to get those voters back.

Remember the PLQ was founded in the 1840s as a party of and for Anglo Quebecois. It may be able to retain those voters, but if it continues to do so poorly among Francohpone voters (it may well have finished not third but fourth among them) it will have a hard time getting back into office.

This map does not look very different from the actual outcome but it shows areas QS could win with a vote boost. QS did very well this election, and in general, where they performed well in a riding, they won that riding. This could present potential roadblocks to growth, but at the same time by simply showing they can win off island, the vote pattern of QS can be expected to change, meaning they could actually win far more than what is shown with a similar vote boost in the next election.

What is perhaps the most sad for the PQ is how minor a vote boost they need to gain extra ridings. A lot of the CAQs most drastic swings were against the Liberals and not the PQ. The party is in great shape to return to party status in the next election.

More than just 4 parties ran candidates. On this map I've given the Conservatives a massive vote boost, over tenfold, to get them above the marker for party status. Due to the overwhelming size of the vote swing, this is not an exact science. Regardless, these are the kinds of seats the party wins at those levels. Quebec City and area, known for leaning a bit to the right, is home to half of the seats, but the party is also able to win in the far North (chances are simply because of how divided the vote was up here) and in more Anglophone ridings. The party's strength in St. Laurent in particular mirrors what I saw in Calgary a decade ago for the Liberals. There are truly parts of Montreal becoming right-wing and pro-Tory, but it may take a number of elections for the party to win seats here even on a federal level.

Lastly, I did the same for the Greens. The NDP vote was too small to do this with. When you do this for the Greens you see how extremely biased towards Anglophone ridings the party is. I've often said the Greens in Quebec, provincially, are an Anglo party, and that they are where Anglos turn when they want to cast a protest vote. This is why. While the party does take ridings in the core of Montreal, the Franco core, it is in large swaths of the west island that they gain the bulk of their ridings.

There will be more posts digging into the math in Quebec.

An update to the computer situation: thanks to donations from friends, I've been able to get a new computer. It is in the mail and should arrive any time between now and a week from now. Until then the laptop still works, but is painfully slow online. This has significantly slowed down my ability to do this sort of work, but rest assured, I do continue working.

No comments:

Post a Comment