Saturday, October 6, 2018

Quebec, Left vs Right

I saw this poll earlier. In particular this graph from it. While the PLQ and PQ were over 80% supportive/opposing sovereignty, both the CAQ and QS had at least a third of people from either side of that divide.

My read of this is that CAQ and QS voters were and are more likely to vote on issues - such as being left or right wing - than simply based on their position on sovereignty.

As such, it gave me an opportunity to make a good left vs right divide map for Quebec using the CAQ and QS vote patterns.

This is the resulting map:

QS actually wins more votes but CAQ more seats. Given how far QS had to be boosted (2.6) its unlikely this is "realistic" especially as both CAQ and QS are new to being at the level they are at now (that being "potential government" and "serious province-wide party") and those patterns tend to change in the 2nd such election.

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