Sunday, July 1, 2018

Early results from Mexico

Mexico's election was held today; I outlined some specifics here, and here, and here if you want to read some context.

 The long-story-short of the results is as follows.

Exit polls were very clear and generally agree. Actual results are very, very low with 1K of 156K boxes opened and counted. Regardless, its generally thought Obrador has won by somewhere in the area of 47.5% of the vote. Mexico has no 2 round system so this is an outright win. Beyond that, his two opponents are expected to each be below 29%, making it a very clear margin of victory.

All other candidates for President have conceded defeat.

The question then comes when asking what about the Congress? The answer seems to be that Obrador's alliance of parties has managed a Majority in the house, and may even have won a majority in the Senate as well, but that one still remains to be seen.

Its a fairly significant victory for Obrador, and while the same could have been said for Erdogan a week ago in that "the win could have been bigger", the same reality is also true that this win is plenty big, and is big enough to meet his expectations.

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