Saturday, February 17, 2018

One way the Ontario PC leadership may play out (the numbers)

From what I can gather from the way the current campaigns are carrying themselves, the below is a possible first round ballot result:

Points Share
3900 Ford 32%
3000 Elliott 25%
2250 Brown 19%
2000 Mulroney 16%
1000 Granic-Allen 8%

First, some may think Granic-Allen's total is high, but I point out that Trost and Lemieux took a combined 20% in Ontario federally running on socially conservative platforms.

Second, Mulroney has proved (at least to me) to be thoroughly unimpressive just about every time I've seen her, and Elliott too just does not truly seem to want the job badly enough, while Ford, somehow, has positioned himself as the progressive candidate.

Where would things go from here? Most of Granic-Allen's voters would probably go to Ford, but as usual, a number will scatter to the winds.

Points Share
4400 Ford 36%
3100 Elliott 26%
2350 Brown 19%
2300 Mulroney 19%

Mulroney voters are likely to go to Elliott

Points Share
5050 Ford 42%
4500 Elliott 37%
2600 Brown 21%

This leaves Patrick Brown voters as Kingmakers. They, I strongly suspect, will heavily favour Ford.

Points Share
7050 Ford 58%
5100 Elliott 42%

Thus Ford wins by a near 3-2 margin over Elliott. 

No comments:

Post a Comment