Thursday, February 8, 2018

General look ahead (projections)

I sometimes get the idea that when I do not post, people think I am not following politics around the world. This post is to dispel that. It is short, and to the point. Not much blah blah, many numbers. These are my projections of upcoming elections all around the world. Note that, as usual, my interest lies in Parliamentary systems, as such, my numbers are for Parliamentary elections, especially the lower house.


A lead of 5 or so points in the polls for the Dems over the GOP for Congress likely means a "real lead" of 2 or so points given the past history of congressional polling VS results. A lead of 2 points would - because Dem support is in cities more than any gerrymandering - still result in a GOP win.

219 - GOP
216 - Dem


The sitting government is very popular. In fact the Socialist leader resigned saying his own party didn't want to win and were only positioning to be the stronger opposition.

141 - Fidesz
25 - Jobbik
17 - MSZP
8 - LMP
8 - DK

(comparison, LMP+DK combined with MSZP for comparison purposes, last time VS projected)

131 - 141 - Fidesz
43 - 33 - Left
23 - 25 - Jobbik


Berlusconi's conservatives have allied with the Lega Nord, the 'halfway separatist' party that wants a highly autonomous northern Italy. Together, the two parties are set to win a plurality in both the House and Senate.

259 - 129 - Right
173 - 87 - Left
170 - 85 - M5S
28 - 14 - LeU

Short by 57 - 29

They will be short in both houses however on current numbers.


Nick Xenophon continues to make a big splash in his home state and is set to hold the balance of power.

31% - LIB - 21
28% - ALP - 16
25% - BST - 9
7% - GRN - 0
7% - OTH - 1

ALP-BST coalition government expected

Xenophon is unlikely to be Premier, but may make Deputy Premier.


Our 3 top contestants are:

Doug Ford
Christine Elliott
Caroline Mulroney

At this time, all 3 are sitting on 25% of the first round vote, however, should one of them run a particularly weak campaign, they number could drop closer to 15%. They may also be joined by one of four people:

Steve Clark and Sylvia Jones - deputy leaders of the party, unlikely to run.
Frank Klees - has run before for leader, 66, out of politis for 4 years, unlikely to run.
Ross Romano - MPP for Sault Ste. Marie, may run to increase profile, won't win.

In the end, this is likely a Ford vs Elliott final ballot, on which, Ford likely has the edge.


11 - LIB
10 - ALP
4 - GRN

This was a very hard projection due to the system used, it remains an open game as to who wins the most seats, however, the Greens have never supported a Liberal government when a Labor government has been a realistic alternative, so Labor has the edge here.


I won't pretend to understand the nuance behind the recent accusations and 'charges' against Netanyahu for corruption, however, polls from before the official declaration of those "charges"

The current 67 seat government is polling at 63 seats.

25 Likud -5 (from last time)
12 Jewish Home +4
8 Kulanu -2
7 UTJ +1
6 Yisrael Beiteinu +-0
5 Shas -2

The opposition meanwhile has seen some major shifts

25 Yesh Atid +14
15 Zionist Union -9
11 Joint List -2
6 Meretz -1

It is possible though unlikely that should Kulanu drop from the coalition and force an election, they could form a new coalition lead by Yesh Atid that also contains the Zionist Union (Labour) and Meretz. They would only then need a half dozen or so additional seats that could come through a strong election result, or, from parties like Shas, UTJ, or Yisrael Beiteinu.

And a few nations without any explicit projection at this time:


The liberal C's party is doing rather well, both they and the conservative PP with whom they govern in a coalition are ahead of either of the two left alternatives. 


Still waiting for the dust to settle on the Democrats. Polls show the LDP sitting on 32.9% "approval" the CDP on 10.6%, and the next 8 largest parties on 10.4% combined. 


After some drastics ups and downs in the 2 or so years since the last election, polls have generally stabilized to look similar to the last election with the exception of the conservative government having taken roughly 4 points directly from the liberal official opposition. 


Tsipras may not survive the next election at this rate, with his socialists far behind the conservatives; however the conservatives do not have the 40% or so they need for a majority in the greek winner-bonus PR system. 


The ANC chose Cyril Ramaphosa as their next candidate for President, and is currently fighting among itself to dump current President Jacob Zuma ahead of the election. Should Zuma fight back and lose, he could lead a new party against the ANC which could demolish the ANC majority.

Regardless, it is unlikely anyone except the ANC would be in a position to govern and they'd simply have to form a coalition. It is near impossible for any other party to "win" the coming elections in 2019. 


FF is polling near where they were in the last election, while SF and FG are both up. FF may be more transfer friendly than they were last time meaning all 3 parties could see seat increases at the next election.

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