Thursday, January 25, 2018

Projections for the 2018 Ontario election

While folk like Yakabuski, Fedeli, or one of the Lisas might run for, and even win the leader, they do not have the "stuff" needed to really revive the PC Party. They'd be "normal" leaders, and likely fall prey to the same atmosphere that brought down Hudak, Tory, and played a part in weakening Brown.

Should any of them win, my current thinking is the most likely election result is as follows:

However, we currently stand at an opportunity for someone that has not existed in this form in Canada for quite some time.

A right-wing, untrustworthy, unknown PC leader has fallen.

A red-tory, who is seen as ethical and above board, and who has played a prominent role in politics for over a decade, would, especially with the Peoples Guarantee, be able to effect a massive win.

Who is that person? That could win with such a massive majority? That would bring together people that I know who are currently PC, Liberal, and even NDP to vote for him? Someone who I would personally buy a PC membership to support?

Michael Chong.


  1. I doubt either of those two scenarios will play out something in between probably, but hard to know which end. We are too polarized politically for this to happen. PCs have a solid core of 30% who will vote for them no matter what and a ceiling of 45% as there are many who will never vote PC. That being said it will be an interesting next few weeks. Liberals pull into the lead? NDP being untainted benefits and pulls ahead? PCs recover with new leader and maintain or extend their lead? Hard to say. I think any of those three are very real possibilities.

  2. No way Chong wins a leadership vote.