Prince Edward Island

Not much to say here that I've not already pointed out before. The Green Party is polling very well, and has been in second place during the term. Pever Bevan-Baker, party leader, is extremely popular.

I know quite a bit about PEI politics, and much of the Green Party vote is similar to the NDP vote in that it is a vote against the two major parties. As such I expect a degree of fluidity of the NDP vote willing to swing to the Green Party should the Greens be doing very well at the time of the next election.

PEI as well, being a smaller province, can easily see apparently major swings in various ridings based on local factors and candidates. However, presuming province-wide trends remain stable, it is possible to make a projection of sorts.

Thus, assuming the Tories fall to 3rd, and more importantly, the Greens were to take around 35% of the vote, and, were to attract the majority of NDP supporters (ideally including a few of their stronger candidates) we could expect to see a result that looks somewhat like this:

This would, of course, mark a radical shift in politics for PEI and would make headlines across the country.

In the end, however, I expect that this result is unlikely as it is far more likely the Tories will return to a stable second place and the Greens will fall back into a clear third.