Thursday, July 27, 2017


Since our last look at Germany, things have returned to stability.

The CDU is hovering around 40% in the polls with the SPD back at 25%. An improvement for the SPD over the previous leader, but not by much. All 4 other parties, meanwhile, hover at or around 8% or 9% in the polls. The 4 parties in question are the Greens, the Left party, the liberal FDP, and the nationalist AfD.

With these numbers, it is quite likely the CDU could win a majority with only FPD support. SPD and Green support, even with Left support added, has trouble getting to the level of the CDU alone. The AfD, meanwhile, while at one time polling over 15%, is now even with the other parties, and does not, at this time, appear strong enough to spoil a CDU-FPD victory. This is a change from the previous update on this blog where the math did not work so well for Merkel.

At this time, as such, it looks like a CDU-FPD majority is, indeed, possible, but would possibly be a narrow one depending on how well AfD does in the election itself. All the CDU-FPD alliance needs is one or two more points in the polls to secure a victory, and current trend lines suggest that remains a possibility.

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