Alberta

The recent vote to merge the PC and Wildrose parties into the UCP confirms what we already expected was going to happen. What is new is the move to the Alberta Party of many disgruntled PC members.

I've taken some of the math from the federal CA-PC merger, and applied to to this one; as well, I've looked at recent polls. I've come up with a figure that I feel best represents the current standings of both parties. I've also been able to re-balance the sub-regional standings of the parties.

Regardless, this is a topic I've spoken about before.

Kenney and the UCP should not count on an automatic victory. Federally,  the merger did not result in a simple addition of one plus one. You will always run in to people who vote for certain parties for various reasons. Many people vote for parties they disagree with because they may like the leader, or, more commonly, may want to hurt another party in particular. There will be both PC and Wildrose voters who will vote NDP just to hurt the UCP because they disagree with the merger as a concept. Not many, but enough to boost the NDP by a few points. Additionally, the two right-wing parties, with different policies, could attract more voters than a single UCP could with a single policy booklet.

As such a close two way race is likely. It is always possible, if the NDP keeps making mistakes in office, or the UCP jerks itself to the right, that one or the other party could gain a strong lead, but until then, I expect the election itself will be a contest between two strong parties, even if the polls say otherwise right up to the dropping of the writ (as it did last time)

Popular Vote

Provincewide
44% NDP (42)
44% UCP (42)
8% ALB (3)

Calgary
44.2% UCP (13 seats)
41.6% NDP (11)
8.6% ALB (1)

Edmonton
58.1% NDP (23)
32.1% UCP (1)
6.0% ALB

Smaller Cities (Med Hat, R.Deer, Leth, G.Prairie, Airdrie, F.Mac)
43.1% UCP (6)
42.3% NDP (3)
11.4% ALB (1)

Rural North
49.2% UCP (10)
39.6% NDP (4)
8.9% ALB (1)

Rural South
61.5% UCP (12)
27.9% NDP (1)
6.8% ALB