Friday, October 21, 2016

UK Projection Update

Less of an update and more of a new projection; I've done a trend based projection.

I expect a few changes from recent polls. The Tories should be expected to rise, especially as people come to terms with the options. UKIP meanwhile is almost certain to implode. There are a few things that could save UKIP from that fate, but at this time, I don't see them happening. (Many of them involve Farage returning as leader) The LibDems also could well do better. Corbyn was never fully committed to the EU, nor was May. The LibDems, however, are. I expect that a good portion of Pro-EU voters will rush to the LibDems as an alternative option.

I'm also abstaining from a Northern Ireland projection. I do see a possibility of APNI regaining a seat, but I've not put the time in to properly dig into the facts, so, for now, I'm simply projecting "18 NI seats".

You may notice that means I'm using the current/old map. This is true. I expect an election this (coming) spring that will use the old map, and not the new one, where brexit is the main issue. As a result, I not only expect the Tories will do better, but that they will do very well in the North, due to UKIP voters (many of whom were past Labour voters) going for the Tories this time.

As such, this is my current projection:

A bit of caution; some of these numbers don't exactly add up. I'm unsure where I went wrong, but the error should not be more than a few seats, one way or another.

A few things to note.

Compared to a national uniform swing, the Tories are expected to gain seats in the North, Scotland, and Wales, while compared to a uniform national swing, Labour is expected to gain (or more accurately, lose fewer) seats in London. The SNP is also expected to retreat slightly, only by a few points, but it will be enough for more non-SNP seats to poke through. This will increase the number of non-SNP MPs (from Scotland) from 3 to 10.

Either way the result is the same, roughly 55% or more of the seats won by the Conservative Party.

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