Sunday, October 9, 2016

Trump takes major fall

It's finally occurred, people have started to hit Donald Trump with stuff that actually sticks. After a year of trying to point out all his outright lies, we've finally seen his actions used to attack him, and boy have those attacks hurt.

As a result, Trump has taken a major fall, so major it's broken the way I've been doing projections to this point. As such I present a new map:

You may notice the Green. I'll get to that.

Many "solid" states have been moved out of the Trump column, something I reserve for extreme events. We will likely not see all of the 'strong' Trump states go to Clinton, but it is possible.

Trump does have a floor, but even that is at risk with news that another equally damaging revelation is set to come out when the group who holds it feels the time is right, and that they have a 3rd, even more damaging revelation set to fire as well.

One thing that came to my attention in my research is that Michigan is becoming a swing-state very quickly, and that by 2020, it could well become one of the swing states targeted by both candidates. This is contrasted with Texas which still has a few more election cycles to go before it becomes a swing state, and Virginia, which is becoming less and less of a swing state and more reliable for the Democrats.

Now, on to the others.

As mentioned a few times before, Utah is the state I'm playing the most attention to this election.

Polls indicate a new candidate has a chance to do well, Evan McMullin. He is not only a local (from Utah) but also mormon, and, pro-life. Contrast this with Johnson who is seem as silly (at best) and is pro-choice. Also in the running in the state is Darrell Castle, the Constitution Party candidate; but he is polling at 2%, at best. Even when pollsters try to force people in Utah to pick only between Trump and Clinton, they still end up with at least 15% of the voters. When polls simply ask who people support, at least a third do not support Clinton or Trump. Currently many of them are split between McMullin and Johnson, but Trump's most recent comments (which are too recent to show up in the polls; the polls that are so bad that I've had to totally change how I do projections) especially hit him socially. It's difficult to imagine a devout mormon who already has been questioning Donald Trump will be able to hold out till election day. These comments seem almost designed to drive Utah voters towards McMullin. The 'problem' for him is he is not well known whatsoever, and voters who are unaware of his presence, may lean towards Johnson.

Regardless, at this time, my current numbers indicate that either McMullin or Johnson are leaning in Utah, if only narrowly, over Clinton.

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