Explosive day in Alberta Politics

 Today, the UCP caucus met to discuss that party's political troubles. A prime topic of discussion was the leaks to the media. This was reported by the media, as the story had been leaked to them. 30 minutes later, they posted a new leak to say the story about the leaks was being discussed at the leak meeting. At this meeting, two MLAs were nominated to be expelled from the party.

This is the latest information as of 15 minutes ago.

Should they be expelled, it could encourage other MLAs to defect from the party. Should the motion fail, Jason Kenney could be out as Premier within the hour. 

The 15 minute leak silence may mean the motion has failed.

Updates for 12MAY2021

 Israel is likely headed back to another election. Regardless of the cause, the recent upswing in violence is very likely to make any anti-bibi coalition all but impossible. There remains a small chance for a Bennett lead right-wing government to still emerge, however.

France has not seen polls change; Macron still defeats LePen 55-45 or so in the final round, and, both still advance to said round; but, my own gut is telling me LePen likely is going to win. There are all sort of intangible reasons for this; but France just "feels" like its ready to elect a radically hard-right President.

Tasmania results have firmed up. It appears the final results are as follows: 13 LIB // 9 LAB // 2 GRN // 1 IND. The one Independent, leans left politically. 

Italy, the parties continue to converge. Rough estimates of current support: M5S 17% // PD 19% // Lega 21% // FdI 19% - what is interesting is that M5S continues to slowly rise and Lega continues to slowly fall. All 4 of the largest parties are converging around 20% of the vote. 

UK update - 09MAY2021

 UK held its local elections over the weekend and I want to sum up some of the results.

Scotland
64-SNP
31-CON
22-LAB
8-GRN
4-LD

Wales
30-LAB
16-CON
13-PC
1-LD

English Locals
The general trend is that the Tories are up.

London
11-LAB
9-CON
3-GRN
2-LD
LAB mayor Sadiq Khan re-elected, 55-45, over CON Shaun Bailey. 

Some thoughts:

One of the biggest changes from recent elections is the absence of a strong hard-right party. In the past two decades, UKIP, the BNP, and other such parties have often been able to make some gains; but here we see a fairly strong rejection. There are still 3 (of 143) councils left to declare, but the combined total of UKIP, RUK, and "Liberal Party" wins is 3 councillors; contrasted with 3 undefined "others", 43 Residents Association members, 248 Independents, 143 Greens (subtotal of 437), plus 572 LibDems, 1332 Labour councillors, and 2313 Tories. This (3) is down from a combined 49 last time.

In Scotland the SNP has actually gained a seat; but, generally, the results are very similar to the previous election. The same can mostly be said for Labour and Wales, but with the absence, this time, of any hard-right parties. Tory strength seems to be driven, somewhat, by weak LibDem and Hard-Right results. This contrasts with Labour, which is facing a growing Green threat on its left. 

Updates - around the world 07MAY2021

 UK local elections are taking longer than I expected to count; I will try to summarize results tomorrow, or, sunday. 

Bulgaria is going back to the polls, as expected. They will vote in July. Polls suggest the 3 anti-corruption parties are now siting on a combined 41.8% (up from 31.36%) while the traditional parties are on a combined 51.6% (slightly up from 51.0%). I expect the former to only continue rising. 

Mexican polls suggest the coming June elections will have a result similar to the 2018 elections.

I've made a very rough prediction for the Russian elections this fall:

285 putin's party 

70 communists 

55 nationalists 

40 moderates

And a similarly rough prediction for this fall's German elections:

180 Greens (Coalition) 

150 CDU/CSU (Coalition) 

100 AfD 

70 SPD 

50 FDP 

40 Linke

Lastly, Bibi's term to try to become PM has expired. Some parties shifted their recommendations; I've outlined this below:

Likud, Shas, UTJ, and RZ
52 members. Bibi last time, and Knesset this time

Yesh Atid, B&W, Labor, YB, Meretz
45 members. Lapid last time, and Lapid this time

New Hope, Joint List (except Balad)
11 members. No one last time, and Lapid this time

Yamina
7 members. Bennett last time, and Bennett this time

Balad, UAL
5 members. No one last time, and No one this time

Had the Knesset faction won, it could have meant that the Knesset could nominate who would get the next chance to become PM. Of course, even had they won, the President would have had to agreed with this. Regardless, Lapid ended up with 56 recommendations, above 52 for the Knesset, and 7 for Bennett.

Update; Canada round up, 05MAY2021

 Location
Expected Election Date (or, my guess, if a minority)
Summary of results I expect

Federal
This fall
Liberal majority, gain of 2 dozen seats from the Tories.

Nova Scotia
Either right after the Federal election, or, Spring 2022
Lib Majority, gain of 4-5 seats from the tories. Houston stays on.

Ontario
Summer 2022
PC minority, Libs second. 50-40-30 seat split, roughly. No deals, no coalition, minority lasts 2 years at most.

Quebec
Fall 2022
CAQ re-elected to another majority, takes seats from PQ. PQ could be reduced to 2 or fewer seats. 

Alberta
Spring 2023
NDP majority, alternative hard-right party takes a few seats as well

PEI
Fall 2023
PC majority. Libs and Greens might tie at 2 or 3 seats each. Possible the combined opposition benches contain less than 3 members. 

Manitoba
Fall 2023
NDP majority, tories down to ~20 seats. Pallister resigns as leader. 

BC, NB, NL, SK, YK
Too far in the future to project

Looking at the Senate while I'm here, current standings are as follows:
42 - ISG (centrist and liberal, non-partisan)
20 - Conservative (right-wing, partisan)
12 - CSG (right-wing, non-partisan)
12 - PSG (left-wing, non-partisan)
5 - others (non-affiliated)
14 - vacant

Liberals win in Tasmania

 Unclear if it is a majority of a minority; but it is possible, but perhaps likely.

According to ABC, the Liberals are on 12 seats, compared to 7 for Labor, and 2 for the Greens. There are 4 seats in doubt. 

Most seats have a party winner; even if a few don't have a specific MP that has won. 

Lyons has elected 3 Liberals and 2 Labor members; Braddon has also elected 3 Liberals, and 2 Labor members; while Franklin has elected 2 Liberals, 2 Labor members, and 1 Green. All of these match the results last election. 

Bass has elected 3 Liberals, as they did last time, and 1 Labor member. Labor could end up with 2 as they did last time, or, the final seat may go Green. 

Clark meanwhile is where the attention is. 2 Liberals have won seats, as well as 1 Labor member and 1 Green. Labour also took a 2nd seat last time, back when the seat was known as Denison, however, they will not be winning a 2nd seat this time. This seat has been the site of much drama. 

The speaker, who holds a seat here, quit as a Liberal after being told she would not be allowed to run again as a Liberal candidate. This was counter-balanced by a former Labor member, who lost in 2018 but won a countback (after a member retired) and re-entered the assembly as an Independent. She has since crossed to the Liberals. She is one of the two Liberals could take the final seat. The other contender is an Independent, Kristie Johnston. She may have benefited from the chaos in this seat, and her electorally successful terms in municipal politics. She could take the seat; and if she does, she would be the first Independent to win a seat since 1996, back when Tasmania had 7 seats per division (vs the current 5). This would be a feat, as, previous to 1996, the last win was in 1982, and before that, 1959 when two Independents won seats. Independent victories were more common prior to this. Still, there have been 20 Independents, total, elected since the 1909 adoption of proportional representation. 

Regardless, the Liberals are likely to hold on to power, but may have to do so in a minority situation. 

Many updates! 30APR2021

 Within the past few hours and days, things have gotten moving around the world, politically.

ISRAEL & PALESTINE

In Israel, it is becoming more and more clear, at least to me, that Naftali Bennett has a good chance of becoming Prime Minister within the next few days and weeks. There is still a chance for another election, and, a chance Bibi holds on; but right now, the smart money is with Bennett. I'll save discussing this a bit more for a later post, as, I have many updates in this post.

In Palestine, the elections have been delayed. I will also address this in detail in a later post, where I'll also explain some of the technicalities and weirdness that places like the Seam Zone cause. 

NETHERLANDS

The coalition process is moving along to its next step. While there is some agreement that more time is needed, there is also a desire to get a comprehensive covid plan on the table. Will update as more comes.

TASMANIA

The Australian state of Tasmania votes tomorrow, May 1st. (or, "Today" in Australia, as this post will go up at about 4am local for Tasmanians) Polls suggest the governing Liberals are likely to be re-elected, but with no guarantee they'll get another Majority. I will post what we know of the results in tomorrow's blogpost.

GERMANY

I've seen enough in new polls to declare significant movement. The new poll average, very roughly, is as follows:

191 - GRN
182 - CDU
110 - SPD

85 - FDP

84 - AfD
56 - LNK

The Greens, polling as high as 28% in some polls, would win their first election, ever, at the federal level, in Germany. Note that I've used 709 seats for my calculation, as, this is the current number of seats, even though the election is expected to produce far fewer seats due to less of a need for overhang seats. 

Their next best showing was 10.7% of the vote in the 2009 election. 

This would not be enough for a Green-Social Democratic government; but would be for Green-Christian Democrat government. This would mean Merkel's party remains in government, but, as a Jr Partner. It is, of course, possible for a the Liberal/Libertarian FDP party to join a GRN-SPD government; and these numbers could even see a GRN-SPD government supported by the hard left Linke party. 

Things are expected to change as the details firm up, and the election date draws closer; but there's a very good chance the Greens could win this in the end. People are a bit tired of Merkel's party, and the chancellor candidate they've offered this election seems sub-par, while the Greens have offered up their own candidate this time, who seems quite popular. My money would be on the Greens winning the most seats and votes, and, heading the next government coalition; with Annalena Baerbock becoming Chancellor. 

BRITAIN

British local elections have managed to sneak up on me this year. County-level elections are taking place in various locations across England. 

In Wales, the Senedd is also up for election. Polls suggest Labour is up by about 2 points from last election, and the Tories are up about 6 points. The Welsh Nationalist PC is about level, while the LibDems have lost 4 points. The 12.5% UKIP took last time has vanished, but two "UKIP-like" parties are each at 4%. Labour can be expected to either retain their seats, or gain additional seats, based on this. Currently they hold 29 of 60 seats, and are supported by the LibDems and some Independents. This could, roughly be expected to continue; but the exact counts need to be seen.

Scotland also votes at the same time. Regionally; which impacts the proportional seats; The SNP is down 5 points, while the Greens are up by 2. The other parties (which currently hold seats) are steady, with the new Alba Party, lead by Alex Salmond, makes up the difference, sitting at around 3% or so. In the Constituency vote, the parties are all within a point or two of what they took last time; but the SNP seems potentially slightly down. If that plays out, the SNP could lose their majority.