Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Updates for 12MAY2021

 Israel is likely headed back to another election. Regardless of the cause, the recent upswing in violence is very likely to make any anti-bibi coalition all but impossible. There remains a small chance for a Bennett lead right-wing government to still emerge, however.

France has not seen polls change; Macron still defeats LePen 55-45 or so in the final round, and, both still advance to said round; but, my own gut is telling me LePen likely is going to win. There are all sort of intangible reasons for this; but France just "feels" like its ready to elect a radically hard-right President.

Tasmania results have firmed up. It appears the final results are as follows: 13 LIB // 9 LAB // 2 GRN // 1 IND. The one Independent, leans left politically. 

Italy, the parties continue to converge. Rough estimates of current support: M5S 17% // PD 19% // Lega 21% // FdI 19% - what is interesting is that M5S continues to slowly rise and Lega continues to slowly fall. All 4 of the largest parties are converging around 20% of the vote. 

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