Wednesday, July 29, 2020


Keeping and eye on North Macedonia. Seems like any coalition will be a hard sell. The DUI is proposing some truly insane things in return for their support; in particular it seems they want some sort of block vote for Albanians.

For those who don't know, the block vote is what the US uses for Presidential elections. If you win a state, even by a single vote, you get all the electoral college voters. The DUI it seems wants the single most winning Albanian party to either get all the Albanian seats (which would be around 25% of all seats or more) or to somehow legally prohibit the other Albanian parties from having any power.

Also keeping an eye on many other locations. New Zealand's National Party is now lead by Judith Collins, and I'm trying to understand the dynamics of that. As far as I can tell, Collins challenged Bridges early in the year, but failed. Later, Muller challenged Bridges and beat him, thus making Muller the leader. Muller then resigned only a few weeks later, and Collins won the leadership election.

The lead that Labour held over the National party prior to Covid was around -5 to 5 points according to the polls. After covid, the lead jumped to 24, 36, and 30. It was here that Muller became leader. The lead was then 30, 27.5, and 12. Only one poll has been taken with Collins, showing the lead at 36 points; that being Labour at 61% of the vote and the National party at 25%.

Internal polls for National (at least, the ones they've released - ergo, the best polls for them) show the gap down to 11 points.

The Best PM polling shows that Bridges never reached higher than 12%, and Muller 13%. Collins only has a single poll but it shows her near 15%. This is the highest reached in such a poll since February of 2018, excepting the sitting Prime Minister, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern, who has not been lower than 37% in that entire time.

On a side note, Winston Peters, and his party, are polling very poorly as of late, and the party may be wiped out in the next election is this does not reverse itself. While the party has been wiped out before, in 2008; he had been Foreign minister at the time. If this plays out, it would mean the two times he entered an election as a cabinet minister, his party got wiped out. Unlike 2008, however, Peters is now 75, and may not be willing or able to return.

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