Thursday, July 16, 2020

quick results roundup.


A very late map, I made, showing the new coalition and where it does and does not have members of the parliament:

Blue is the new coalition. As you can see, most seats have at least one government and one opposition member, but not all.

North Macedonia:

Counting still ongoing, but, 99% complete; current standings are as follows:

Underlined parties are Albanian, Parties with a yellow background are the government. In short; it looks like the Government has been re-elected with the narrowest possible majority.


The referendum passed with flying colours; with all the normal caveats about the legitimacy of results of elections in Russia in mind. Interestingly, one sub-region voted against. This sub-region had been due to merge with a neighbouring region (technically, the subregion is a subregion of that region; a bit like if Labrador had a territorial assembly; its part of Newfoundland and Labrador, so, you can think of the move as akin to telling Labrador it would lose said assembly). It's generally accepted the "no" vote was in protest of this move, and as a result, the subregional governor resigned, and the merger was called off.


Duda, the incumbent, has won the election with around 51% of the vote. The closeness indicates that Poland is anything but comfortable with Duda and his policies, but also indicates that for the time being, said policies do have the support of the majority, even if a narrow one.


Two regions of Spain held elections on the 12th. Both saw the incumbent re-elected just as the polls suggested. The "long story short" simply being that there is no story to tell, which is true for some of the other goings on in politics as of late.


The polling here is interesting. Not the polling for the upcoming election, but the polling for the one that was completed earlier this month. Polls suggested that the Social Democrats would win by about a dozen seats. Instead, the Conservatives won by about two dozen seats. I will want to address this more later, but, it could simply be that in these covid times, incumbents (who do well dealing with the virus) tend to be re-elected.


Related to the above, the Liberals are polling quite well. I've seen suggestions as of late that the Tories should shut down their party. That is ridiculous. The Liberals themselves were once in 3rd place federally, and came back to win a majority in the following election. Any suggestion the Tories should fold due to current polling lacks foresight.


The opposition has continued to make ganis, with the government taking a low 61.24% of the vote. Singapore uses the block vote system, similar to the US Electoral College. The winner in any constituency is then able to obtain all of that constituency seats. The opposition Workers Party has managed to win three such areas, totalling 10 seats. While the government has taken a lower vote share before, this is one of their weakest showings since independence. Meanwhile, this seems to be the first time any opposition party has won three separate regions, and, the highest number of opposition members ever elected. The seats come from the same area the Workers Party has been electing members for over a decade; the area has been outlined on this map.


  1. as with Canada, who is suggesting that the CPC shut themselves down?


    2. I find that site will good in analyzing current polls, tends to go on dubious assumption polls won't change and that voters are firmly in one camp or another which is false. Polls are a snapshot of moment, not long term predictor. Also too caught up in idea rural areas and those with only high school education moving right but suburbs and those with college degree moving left. I think a more accurate on that is suburbs are centrist so yes if right goes too far right they won't win there, but they are not left wing so a moderate Tory can win in them.

  2. As with Canada, who is suggesting that the CPC shut themselves down?