Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Final UK prediction - Tory Majority

The final prediction is ready:

I've used the same "gut method" I used in Canada.

The long-story-short here is the the Tories win a majority. The "why" is simple; the Brexit Party fell apart. People look at Labour and the Tories and compare their current polling numbers to their polling numbers earlier in the election. In that context, it is hard to see what has actually happened. Compare, instead, to their results from the previous election. You can see that Labour is down while the Tories are much more steady. This will give them a very slight edge, especially in those "Labour Leave" seats. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile have not been able to grow as strongly as they'd have hoped. While they are significantly up from the last election, it is not enough to take away many "Tory Remain" seats, which would have needed to have happened if the LibDems were to have stopped Johnson from getting his majority.

There is always the chance something unexpected could happen. I'm writing this a few minutes before 8:30pm in the UK on the 11th, there could be polls that come out over the next few hours that show results I did not expect, and thus, cast doubt on the entire prediction. Additionally, people could simply make up their minds in the final day, and cast ballots that do not match the polls. People may decide that Johnson is not worth the risk, or, that they simply want to get brexit done and they they can vote for a better party next time.

Regardless, I'll be keeping a close eye on the results as they come in and discussing them in my discord server. If that sounds like something you'd be interested in participating in, let me know on twitter!

1 comment:

  1. 40 seats to watch