Hello to any potential new readers; apparently I've gotten mentioned on reddit earlier today. Unfortunately I do not really do mathematical projections about Canadian elections anymore. I started doing them online in 2006, and over that time I've learned that what counts is how well you write, not how accurate you are. Beyond that, I am on disability (ODSP), and have ethical issues with the paywalls that more and more pollsters are putting up around their data. Lastly, while my federal projections election have generally been bullseyes, my provincial election projections have often been way off the mark. Altogether, it's driven me to no longer bother with serious mathematical projections for Canada.
What I am doing, however, is keeping up with politics from all around the world.
I am still waiting for Israel to decide who will form its next government. Bibi (Netanyahu) is in the driver's seat, but is likely to achieve anything; so once Gantz gets his chance to form a coalition, I expect to have something to update.
Austria's elections finally wrapped up. An OVP-FPO coalition appears most likely, but an OVP-SPO coalition could happen, especially given that such a coalition traditionally governs the country.
Portugal votes on Sunday, polls suggest the left-wing Socialists will defeat the right-wing Social Democrats by a wide margin.
Beyond this, there is not much of interest going on at the moment. Things could always chance should there be a drastic shift in the polls in one of the dozens of countries I follow, but at this time, they are all stable. Coming up later this month are the elections in the German state of Thuringia, as well as elections in Kosovo, Tunisia, Poland, Switzerland, and Argentina; most of which I will likely cover.
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