Sunday, October 20, 2019

My (S)election

For fun - as, it is fun to make and colour in maps (if it was not, my maps would not exist!) - I've decided to do something that I sometimes do after elections; change the results.

Instead of using the election result, I'm going to use my last projection. These are changes that I, if I were God-Emperor of the Universe, would make to the election. I'll explain the changes in each region as I post.

The Atlantic:
I've weakened the Liberals here. I've also made PEI go Green, and added Tories in NL. Three of the provinces now have MPs from three different parties, NB has four. This is healthy for democracy. PEI however, goes 100% Green. This is because, having grown up there, I know what sort of impact this would have. PEI becomes a healthy proportion of the Green caucus, and thus, has greater influence than otherwise. It also makes the other parties sit up and take notice, meaning they will need additional efforts to win it back.

Tories! This area has lacked tories for quite some time and that is not healthy for democracy. It is good when a large number of viewpoints can be heard, and the views of Montreal area Tories deserve to be heard. I've also added an additional NDP seat for similar reasons.

Minor changes, I've never liked how Saint Maurice does really weird things at times, so I made it stop doing that by making it vote how it 'otherwise should' I've also slightly boosted the Bloc in rural Quebec.

Again, more tories; but also more Liberals in places. I've basically shuffled support around a bit, making the "borderline" between Tory and Liberal support much less clear and stark. As a result, the ridings in the area get more competitive.
More Liberals. Additionally, my riding goes Green. I figured if I'm voting Green it would be weird for me to not make them win my own riding.

Territories all go Green. I feel that this is "logical"; climate change impacts them the most, hence, they vote for the party strongest on climate issues. Like Rural Ontario, I've also strengthened the Liberals slightly.

Peoples Party!! More NDP, and more Liberals. Alberta, under FPTP, does not well represent its people. The 60-40 split can make for for a 100-0 split in seats. The Liberals get a boost here as well; this is to offset tory boosts elsewhere, and to make the entire country as a whole more competitive. The Peoples party also gain 2 seats, as their voices deserve to be heard.
British Columbia:
Greens! Wins off the Island will help strengthen the party. Also, I quite like the CPC candidate in Skenna, so, I made her win. She could well win on her own. Outside this, and beyond some Green strength, this is basically the actual gut projection for BC.

The result is a Liberal-Green coalition, with issue-by-issue support from either the NDP or Bloc as needed. Parties will find they have representatives from all across the country, with each and every province represented by at least three parties (except PEI) and some, represented by four.

Early in the term JRW will join the Green Party, and in a year or two, end up back in Cabinet. The Liberal-Green coalition would then turn into an outright party merger. As part of the deal, the new Green Liberal Party, which people call the "Grits" and which uses Green as its main colour, will hold a leadership election, as the merger agreement stipulates, which JRW will win over Trudeau on the final ballot, surprising many. She will then win a majority in 2023.

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