Saturday, October 19, 2019

How I've done my gut projections

Many likely are wondering exactly how I've done my projections without math. As you know, I've already released my final projection. I can do this due to the method.

First, I begin by looking at other projections. qc125, or more accurately,, whose projection map, is delightful. His projections are the anchor this entire election as I see it. Next, I go to Canadian Election Watcher, and other people who make projections like Rhea Donsman (twitter),, Kyle J Hutton (twitter),, and others.

This gives me a "sanity check" baseline. It means anything I do will not be so far from reality as to question my sanity.

From there I read. I read news stories, I read tweets, I even ask people to send me their opinions.

Following this, I go over my maps, and, using both the projections, what I've been told, and, importantly, what my gut says, I change the maps.

This is why I can make a projection days before the election. My gut is telling me how things will unfold over the final weekend. It tells me the NDP will outperform expectations. It tells me Scheer isn't gaining traction and people will abandon him for other options. It tells me Singh and Trudeau will probably agree to a coalition. It tells me that Canadians want a "Progressive Government" and will get just that, even if in minority.

The Liberal-NDP coalition will have 169 seats, exactly half. After the speaker is chosen - probably the current Speaker, a Liberal (Geoff Regan) this puts them at 168 VS 169 for all other parties. One of those 169 opposition members, however, will be Jody Raybould-Wilson, who is a progressive. Added to that will be 3 Greens who are also progressive. Beyond this will be a large Bloc caucus that also leans towards the progressive end of the spectrum.

If Trudeau proves he can behave (IE, does not have more scandals like JRW, or, break promises like electoral reform) he will likely be headed for a majority at the next election. As to when that election will be, my current thinking is May 2022 after a 30 month deal with the NDP expires. Just long enough to get some larger projects started, but not long enough to get them finished (therefore, "we need to be re-elected to finish this")

I hope that clarifies things. The only math I've done has been for the atlantic, both in the post I made, and 4 days ago as an additional sanity check. I'm convinced the projectonators do not have the atlantic down pat. The 2015 region-to-province vote distribution will not be repeated in 2019, at least, not to the same degree. The Tories will do better in NL and NS and as a result, worse in NB.

Regardless. This is how I've done my projections for this election, and, very likely, will continue doing projections for the foreseeable future.

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