Thursday, December 28, 2017

Ontario projection

Math based projection from the 4 most recent polls:

62 - PC
33 - LIB
28 - NDP
1 - GRN

62 seats for the Tories and 62 for the other parties combined.

edited to add:


  1. If true it would make the speaker a big issue as an opposition speaker gives the Tories a majority while a Tory Speaker a minority. Expect a fair bit of drama if this plays out. Perhaps Mike Schreiner might agree to be speaker.

    1. If this were to happen there'd likely be a few Liberals who would want to get out of politics, Wynne might even go the way Clark did and just up and quit her seat.

    2. Makes sense. Also does this include Nanos. Although not listed on Wikipedia if you check their December 19th entry at where you scroll down to the bottom it gives a poll. It shows 41% PCs, 34% Liberals, and 19% NDP.

    3. No, just the 4 listed. "serious" projections that delve deeper into detail starts closer to the election date.

  2. I agree with this in general. I have some concerns about whether or not the NDP will actually rise in Toronto or even the GTA, as I suspect the Brown PCs will be sucking up a lot of oxygen there; in fact I'm bold enough to say that I'm very hesitant on their chances to keep Brampton East without Jagmeet Singh on the ballot. If I were to make any changes to your projection, it would be to swap out some of the Toronto area NDP seats with blue and red in the suburbs and city respectively.

    Oh and give Jim Bradley his seat back, you know he'll never lose it, guy's gone through what, four or five government turnovers? :)