Wednesday, December 6, 2017

PEI Greens could form next Official Opposition

As mentioned in my post yesterday, I have a new map and a new projection.

So it was an interesting delight to see a new CRA poll putting the Greens at 25%. The Poll has a margin of error of 4%, meaning the party is effectively tied with the PC Party, at 28%.

"Great" I thought, "The Greens doing this well in the polls after that by-election win really shows they could actually win multiple seats"

However, I was wrong. The polling dates were November 1st through November 30th.

Just as New Democratic Parties jumped (in poll numbers) across the nation after their Alberta victory, I expect this by-election to strongly boost Green poll numbers across PEI. The fact they are starting at 25% only makes the chances they can win the 6 ridings shown on the map more likely.

Long story short, everything noted above presents a strong case for a Green Party official opposition in the next election, if not a government. When you actually look at the numbers, you notice that Bevan-Baker is the only leader over 30% in "best leader" polling consistently, and has lead such polling in all but one polling period listed, it only makes it more clear.

Edited to add for further context:

This article is another reason why I'm more certain. Large groups of people who formerly held high ranks don't tend to join a party unless that party has momentum.

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