Monday, November 27, 2017

Queensland, and week update

I've taken a look at the ABC's election projections, and wish to detail what is going on.

Aspley, Bonney, Burdekin, Gaven, Pumicestone, and Townsville, are all tight 2 way races between the ALP and LNP

Maiwar may have the wrong 2PP. In fact, this is the problem that I've noticed more than the ABC has, where preference flows mean the current 2PP count could be simply wrong as the wrong candidate was chosen. Because of that, this seat could go LNP, ALP, or GRN.

Hintchbrook (KAP, LNP) may also have the wrong 2PP, however, due to the positioning of the parties, even if it does, neither ALP or ONP can win.

Rockhambton is more of a mess with an Independent involved. Strelow, a local Mayor, was a former Labor member who is seen as moderate, is currently shown in the lead; but preference flows in the right direction could position other parties well; however, as odd as it sounds, only Strelow is positioned to win, as she would defeat any opponent in a head to head competition, and is transfer-friendly enough to guarantee a position on the final ballot, meaning I'm marking this seat as a clear victory for the Independent.

Using these numbers, the projection would see 48 ALP members elected, 40 LNP, and 5 others, 1 ONP, 3 KAP, and 1 IND.

However, some of the seats ABC is certain about, I am not so certain.

In Macalister I dug into Hetty Johnston, the Independent. Looked at her 2004 Senate preference flows (it should be noted that her 2004 Senate run is not even mentioned on Wikipedia) and after concluding that while she might gain some Green preferences, it was more likely she'd gain right-wing preferences, I concluded the LNP candidate would probably be able to beat her to the final round, which means an ALP victory here, as the ABC says.

In Buderim, its quite possible that ALP not ONP will advance to the final round; but LNP's lead likely means they beat both.

Cairns has a strong Independent, but again, his views would not enable him to get the transfers he needs, and an ALP victory here is likely.

Southern Downs is a similar story; the Independent here needs Green transfers but has posted support of ONP as a #2 vote on his Facebook, and thus won't be getting Green transfers anytime soon, meaning an LNP victory here is correct.

Callide has no major Independent, but rather it is ALP who needs KAP preferences; but KAP has preferenced ONP #2, and thus, LNP will win here as well.

Lastly, Cook and Thuringowa, where had KAP gone LNP, the LNP would likely have won these seats, but with ONP heading to the final round against ALP, both are ALP victories.

As such, my research has shown no change from the ABC projection.

48 ALP - 35.9%
40 LNP - 33.6%
3 KAP - 2.3%
1 ONP - 13.7%
0 GRN - 9.7%
1 OTH - 4.9%

In other news, I am going to try to push out one post a day for this week as I was encouraged to do so by a reader. Tomorrow will see a post on Northern Ireland, followed by the Republic of Ireland on Wednesday. Thursday will see an update on Germany, with Friday seeing an update on Iceland. Both of those latter two depend on both not yet finishing coalition negotiations and on elections being likely; if elections become unlikely, I will instead focus on an area where an election will occur within the next year or two.

1 comment:

  1. Iceland Monitor ( ) is reporting that LGA, Independence and Progress have agreed to join a LGA government and it will be announce as early as today.