Thursday, March 2, 2017

Northern Ireland - Thoughts on Predictions

My earlier prediction, in short, still stands.

I am fairly confidant I have the DUP-UUP balance correct, however, the SF-SDLP balance is much trickier. 23-11 may end up being more realistic at the end of the day.

As well, a great deal of this depends on how well the parties manage their vote. It's quite possible to gain or lose a seat unexpectedly because you failed to manage the vote well, with the DUP running so many candidates, they could suffer from this, and as such, win even fewer seats than expected.

In most places I was able to discern 4 slots that parties should win. The final slot, however, was almost always up for grabs between two parties. In some cases, a 5th slot was clear, but this only happened in North Down, and Newry. 

As such it is possible for some parties to win more or less than otherwise shown. the PBP could end up with only a single seat, and the Greens could take 3.

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