Next week the Netherlands goes to the polls. I wanted to do a quick update of changes that have occurred.
Both the Nativist party, and Pensioner party leaders have gotten themselves in trouble with the courts. Both the parties have suffered as a result. The Nativists have dropped from 18.7% to 17.1%, while the Pensioners have dropped from 6.3% to 4.1%. This is, as always, based on poll averages. The remaining parties are stable, gaining or losing less than 0.3%, however, three parties have gained more than this; the three parties I've suspected for some time will form the next government.
The Conservatives hare up to 16.9% from 16.0%
The Liberals now sit at 11.2% from 10.7%
And the Christian Democrats are at 12.2% from 11.3%
This would give the potential coalition 40.3%, compared to 57.3% for the other parties combined. Minority governments have happened before in the Netherlands, however it would only take Labour staying in the government to give this grouping a majority. Additionally, the momentum is with this grouping, and even the best polls can be off by a point or two per party; meaning it is possible this potential coalition could obtain their own majority.
I agree with your predictions, but note that historically, D66 has been VERY reluctant to join governments containing the CDA because of differences on social/cultural issues.ReplyDelete
True, but, with the prospect of PVV waiting in the wings, they'll probably think better of it.Delete