Friday, March 3, 2017

Northern Ireland, counting

Belfast West first preference results are in. It looks like SF will take 3 seats, and PBP 1. The final seat will come down to a race between SF, SDLP, and DUP. SDLP will be the most transfer friendly, but DUP has a 600 vote head start; while SF is above both by 1400 votes, but will need to split its preferences to win the 3 seats; my gut says SDLP will squeak in.

Belfast South appears set to elect SF, SDLP, APNI, DUP. The final seat is going to be a race between DUP, Green, and UUP. If the DUP is as transfer unfriendly as I think they are, the Greens and UUP have the edge.

Strangford won't be returning Jonathan Bell, bar some miracle on transfers. DUP, DUP, APNI, UUP seem confirmed; final seat will come down between UUP and SDLP with UUP having the edge.

North Down actually saw 3 candidates pass the threshold already, and another just behind. The 5th candidate is also close enough that things are pretty much done here. DUP, DUP, UUP, APNI, GRN

East Antrim has spread it's vite. DUP, UUP, APNI, DUP seem guaranteed. SF and UUP likely to fight over the final seat, I'd give the edge to UUP.

South Antrim may show poor vote management; SF, UUP, and APNI seem headed for a seat, while DUP will likely take the final two, there's a chance the SDLP could steal one.

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