Friday, June 24, 2016

Brexit, the day after.

Northern Ireland
Projection +12
Result +12

Projection +8
Result +23

Projection +4
Result -5

England (without london)
Projection -14
Result -11*

Projection +20
Result +20

*4 results left to count

Turnout did not play out as expected, and Wales turned. Scotland also was stronger Remain than I expected, but this was offset by turnout in England outside London.

In the end I feel it was the turning of Wales that made most of the difference. Even if Wales had not turned, leave would still have won, but if Leave had won only in England outside London, I feel that it would have made it a much less legitimate win.

I'm finding it difficult to find words to explain everything, so I'll simply outline where I feel things will go from here.

Cameron has only two roads. One is to resign and allow Boris Johnson to become PM. The other is to try to negotiate a new deal and hold another referendum. The problem is the EU has made it clear the latter is a no no. They do not want the nations playing referendum games to negotiate better deals. Cameron, as such, will be gone within a few days, and Johnson will become PM.

The margin in Scotland was different enough, and the end result close enough, that Scotland will have another referendum, and I don't see how they remain in the UK. As such, Scotland will become an Independent country.

With Scotland leaving, and the UK leaving the EU, and the chances of border controls, I could see problems in Northern Ireland. Worst case scenario is this ends in violence. Hopefully some kind of deal will be worked out, but, for now, I'm skipping predictions on the future of Northern Ireland.

The latest for all this to begin is after the German elections in the fall of 2017. This would set in motion the 2 years of chapter 50, meaning the UK would withdraw prior to January 1st 2020.

I'd like to address January 1st 2020

On that date we will see a very different Northern Ireland. It may be part of Ireland, it may be part of Scotland even; it may simply remain under the crown, or, it may be ruled in some kind of condominium deal between London and Dublin.

On that date we see an independent Scotland. It is part of the European Union. It uses the Euro as it's currency, though not happily, but this was part of the deal. It essentially takes over part of the UK's old position. I could see some physical offices remaining in their physical location, but with Scottish flags not British flags out front.

And lastly, the biggest new addition is the "Kingdom of England and Wales". Possibly with Northern Ireland tacked on, but I have my doubts. "England and Wales" will become a 'thing' and people will need to get used to saying it. Start now.
England and Wales will basically take over the UK's position on world bodies like the UK and the all important Veto. England and Wales will basically take over the UK's position on prestiged. I could even see a new perhaps unfortunate .ew added to the internet.

This is the future as I see it.

The world has changed.

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