The recent referendum is reported to have been a massively oversized landslide for the yes side, on roughly 40% turnout. This matches the previous referendum 3 years ago.
I recommend following the BBC which has semi-regular updates on the situation.
In short, Catalan leaders have indicated they will declare independence, but Spain insists they will not recognize such a move. Europe is to debate this, but some countries have already come down on the side of Spain such as Ireland.
Italy faces its own separatists who seem emboldened by this, and the reactions of governments like the UK may cause flair ups in Scotland, for example. The political reality means the EU is unlikely to back this drive for Independence at this time.
Elsewhere,
I'm very eager to start writing about Iceland and Japan but the situation in both countries remains chaotic with new parties being formed and not many polls showing how well said parties are doing. As such I will wait until the situation calms down before doing my intro.
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Sunday, October 1, 2017
Singh first round victory
As mentioned in my post earlier today, the best result for the NDP was a first round victory. Singh, unlike Angus, does not have a seat, but with 55% of the party behind him on the first ballot, it puts significant energy behind the NDP and makes for a strong star for Jagmeet Singh as leader.
Update - October
Catalonia is "voting" today; at least where the police are not smashing down doors to grab ballot boxes. It's safe to say regardless of the result, few will view it as legitimate.
The NDP is voting as well. Mathematically, given the controversial stances of some candidates, the best result for the NDP may be 33.4% of the vote for both Angus and Singh, and 16.6% for Ashton and Caron. Don't get me wrong, I like Caron and would be tempted to vote NDP if he were leader, but I don't think he is appealing to the wider party, and Ashton turns people away due to her far left stances. If both were dropped on this ballot and the race became head to head between Singh and Angus, I think it would serve the NDP well.
There are a number of elections that I simply won't be following. Portugal's municipal elections today, for example, or the local and regional votes and referenda in Luxembourg, Austria, Venezuela, Italy, Kosovo, and the Philippines. It is also unlikely I will follow national elections in Liberia, Kyrgyzstan, Slovenia, or Kenya, mostly due to them either having unstable democracies, or, being for positions without much real power.
On the 15th Austria votes in Parliamentary elections. The Conservatives appear set for a win, with their new leadership being rather popular. They've pushed both the Socialists and the Nationalists down in the polls. Austria has a strong and long history of Conservative-Socialist coalition government, and that is likely to continue.
On the same day is regional (AKA provincial) elections in Lower Saxony in Germany, where electors will send members to the legislature in Hanover. In the federal election, the CDU took 35%, and the Greens 9%. Both parties are polling at the same numbers provincially, but Die Linke took 7% federally and is only at 5% at the state level, while the FDP took 9% and is at 8%. AfD, which I'm keeping an eye on was at 9% but is polling at 6%. The big gain is for the SPD which only took 27% of the vote here last week, but is sitting on 34% of the vote for the Landtag.
Czechia, formerly known as the Czech Republic, votes on the 20th and 21st. ANO2011 is the leading party in the polls. The party is interesting as it is probably the closest analogy to the Liberal Party of Canada in the world, being big-tent, pragmatic, and willing to use working ideas from across the spectrum.
On the 22nd is the election in Japan, which is still fluid. I've decided to report the entire alliance which the opposition Democrats is participating in as DP, or the Democratic Party. While not entirely accurate, it helps with understanding and simplicity. I've also gone over some historic results to help me understand the results of this coming election, as such I have a projection update:
245 LDP
30 NKP
265 GOV
150 DP
25 JCP
15 OTH
While this still gives the LDP a majority of their own, the DP becomes a very strong opposition force and one that will need to be dealt with properly if the LDP plans to continue winning elections. Part of the reason the DP has gained so much since my last projection is the system Japan uses, Parallel. A 5% change in vote will only gain you 5% of those proportional seats. The DP's alliance partner has done very well in Tokyo and I project 20 'ridings' that they can win, hence the sudden jump. Add to that the new poll that shows the DP at 18% "approval" (which translates into around 38% at the polls) and you begin to see where the remainder of the gain comes from.
On the same day is elections in Argentina. I'm not certain I'll cover these fully. Argentina is still a somewhat "new" democracy, only a few decades of stable democratic rule, and its parties are still somewhat fluid making a quality analysis difficult. Additionally, many countries that do not speak english have data that is hard to find; while in cases like Japan I can reference history to help me understand things, with newer democracies this is all the more difficult.
Lastly on the 28th is the election in Iceland which I plan to do a full post about in the coming days.
The NDP is voting as well. Mathematically, given the controversial stances of some candidates, the best result for the NDP may be 33.4% of the vote for both Angus and Singh, and 16.6% for Ashton and Caron. Don't get me wrong, I like Caron and would be tempted to vote NDP if he were leader, but I don't think he is appealing to the wider party, and Ashton turns people away due to her far left stances. If both were dropped on this ballot and the race became head to head between Singh and Angus, I think it would serve the NDP well.
There are a number of elections that I simply won't be following. Portugal's municipal elections today, for example, or the local and regional votes and referenda in Luxembourg, Austria, Venezuela, Italy, Kosovo, and the Philippines. It is also unlikely I will follow national elections in Liberia, Kyrgyzstan, Slovenia, or Kenya, mostly due to them either having unstable democracies, or, being for positions without much real power.
On the 15th Austria votes in Parliamentary elections. The Conservatives appear set for a win, with their new leadership being rather popular. They've pushed both the Socialists and the Nationalists down in the polls. Austria has a strong and long history of Conservative-Socialist coalition government, and that is likely to continue.
On the same day is regional (AKA provincial) elections in Lower Saxony in Germany, where electors will send members to the legislature in Hanover. In the federal election, the CDU took 35%, and the Greens 9%. Both parties are polling at the same numbers provincially, but Die Linke took 7% federally and is only at 5% at the state level, while the FDP took 9% and is at 8%. AfD, which I'm keeping an eye on was at 9% but is polling at 6%. The big gain is for the SPD which only took 27% of the vote here last week, but is sitting on 34% of the vote for the Landtag.
Czechia, formerly known as the Czech Republic, votes on the 20th and 21st. ANO2011 is the leading party in the polls. The party is interesting as it is probably the closest analogy to the Liberal Party of Canada in the world, being big-tent, pragmatic, and willing to use working ideas from across the spectrum.
On the 22nd is the election in Japan, which is still fluid. I've decided to report the entire alliance which the opposition Democrats is participating in as DP, or the Democratic Party. While not entirely accurate, it helps with understanding and simplicity. I've also gone over some historic results to help me understand the results of this coming election, as such I have a projection update:
245 LDP
30 NKP
265 GOV
150 DP
25 JCP
15 OTH
While this still gives the LDP a majority of their own, the DP becomes a very strong opposition force and one that will need to be dealt with properly if the LDP plans to continue winning elections. Part of the reason the DP has gained so much since my last projection is the system Japan uses, Parallel. A 5% change in vote will only gain you 5% of those proportional seats. The DP's alliance partner has done very well in Tokyo and I project 20 'ridings' that they can win, hence the sudden jump. Add to that the new poll that shows the DP at 18% "approval" (which translates into around 38% at the polls) and you begin to see where the remainder of the gain comes from.
On the same day is elections in Argentina. I'm not certain I'll cover these fully. Argentina is still a somewhat "new" democracy, only a few decades of stable democratic rule, and its parties are still somewhat fluid making a quality analysis difficult. Additionally, many countries that do not speak english have data that is hard to find; while in cases like Japan I can reference history to help me understand things, with newer democracies this is all the more difficult.
Lastly on the 28th is the election in Iceland which I plan to do a full post about in the coming days.
Thursday, September 28, 2017
Update - Catalonia, Kurdistan, and more
The Spanish Government is moving to block the referendum in Catalonia.
Iraqi Kurdistan voted heavily for independence, as expected, but Iraq is rejecting the results, as are Turkey and Iran. More to come.
Iceland will get its own update. Election on the 28th. The old Prime Minister (the Progressive one, tossed for corruption, not the most recent one) is trying to start his own party. The current government is sitting on a potential 15 seats in the polls as are the left-greens. The Pirates are closer to 7 as are the Progressives, while the Peoples Party are on 6, the Socialists are on 5, Reform is on 3, and Bright Future is on 2.
Japan is in a state of flux. They got o the polls on the 22nd. I'll do a far more detailed post once news becomes more clear.
And lastly, fictional CMHoC, which I've mentioned before, is also holding a snap election; a great time to join and campaign for your fav party.
Iraqi Kurdistan voted heavily for independence, as expected, but Iraq is rejecting the results, as are Turkey and Iran. More to come.
Iceland will get its own update. Election on the 28th. The old Prime Minister (the Progressive one, tossed for corruption, not the most recent one) is trying to start his own party. The current government is sitting on a potential 15 seats in the polls as are the left-greens. The Pirates are closer to 7 as are the Progressives, while the Peoples Party are on 6, the Socialists are on 5, Reform is on 3, and Bright Future is on 2.
Japan is in a state of flux. They got o the polls on the 22nd. I'll do a far more detailed post once news becomes more clear.
And lastly, fictional CMHoC, which I've mentioned before, is also holding a snap election; a great time to join and campaign for your fav party.
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
Shake up in Japan
As reported earlier, Japan is headed to the polls.
What's suddenly changed is not only the creation of a new Tokyo based party, but it's merger with the Democratic Party.
This has the potential to make a large change to my earlier projection, and as such, I present an updated projection:
265 LDP
35 NKP
300 GOV
115 KnT
25 IO
25 JCP
10 OTH
What's suddenly changed is not only the creation of a new Tokyo based party, but it's merger with the Democratic Party.
This has the potential to make a large change to my earlier projection, and as such, I present an updated projection:
265 LDP
35 NKP
300 GOV
115 KnT
25 IO
25 JCP
10 OTH
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
German election results maps and data
Having some writers block as of late, but I thought I would share the maps I've made showing some data. Interesting numbers between West and East germany.
Monday, September 25, 2017
Japan calls snap election
Shinzo Abe has called a snap election.
current projection:
295 LDP
35 NKP
330 GOV
70 DP
30 IO
30 JCP
15 OTH
More to come, as always.
current projection:
295 LDP
35 NKP
330 GOV
70 DP
30 IO
30 JCP
15 OTH
More to come, as always.
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