Sunday, November 7, 2021

07NOV2021 updates

 The Czech situation has resolved, with the President able to speak from the hospital. He's confirmed he will appoint a SPOLU-PaS coalition, which, will confirm it's new government next week. As such, I've decided to stop following the government formation unless something changes. 

Bulgarian polls have settled down. Currently, polls suggest the following:

65 GERB (conservative)
45 BSP (socialist)
41 PP (anti-corruption)
36 ITN (anti-corruption)
27 DPS (liberal and minority)
25 DB (anti-corruption)

How that would turn into any potential government coalition remains to be seen. 

In South Africa, municipal elections give a hint at what the next election might look like. In particular, this is a rough estimate. Note, the number in brackets indicate the result in the last election.

201 ANC (230)
95 DA (84)
45 EFF (34)
25 IFP (14)
10 FFP (10)
10 ASA (0)
14 other (18)

If this plays out, the ANC will be sitting on a knife edge of a majority. 

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