Thursday, December 17, 2020

Update for 17DEC2020

 The deadline in Israel for action (if there will be an election or not) seems to be December 23rd. Polls are somewhat stable from my last post, but Likud is up while Yamina is down, though, only by a few seats. New Hope also has a new MK from Likud, but, of the 35 MKs elected to the current Likud bloc in the Knesset, 33 remain with the party as of the time of writing this post. 

In Russia, Putin's party continues to ever so very slowly drop in the polls. Starting at about 32% in January, they now sit closer to 30%. Now that Russian polls do not take out undecided respondents, meaning Putin's party is closer to 42%. The Communists and Nationalists are near one another in the polls, though, the communists have a consistent and small edge. Assuming both parties have equal support, with the catch-all Just Russia part at half their level, the math tells us that Putin's party only needs double the support of the Communists and Nationalists to win a majority. Meaning if he takes 44% of the vote, while the Communists and Nationalists take 22% each, and Just Russia takes 11%, Putin still wins a majority, taking about 54% of available seats. Put in context of Russian polls, this means 24% vs 12% and 12%. At current, the party sits at 30%, and thus, is still comfortably in majority territory. 

In Italy, the right-wing alliance sits close to a majority in the polls. The next election, however, is not expected for years. 

I've also taken a quick look at legislatures across Canada. Nothing much of interest to report. The 'most interesting' things I can find are that both PEI and NS are one defection away from their governments losing a majority. The Senate however is a bit interesting, or, at least, I think. Current standings in the Senate are as follows:

44 - Independent Senators Group - Crossbench (Big Tent; mostly Centre to Centre-Left)
20 - Conservative Party - Partisan (Right-wing to Centre-Right)
13 - Canadian Senators Group - Right (Centre to Centre-Right)
11 - Progressive Senate Group - Left (Centre-Left to Left-wing)
6 - Independent - Various (includes 3 pro-govt Senators)
11 - Vacancies (1BC, 1AB, 2SK, 1ON, 3QC, 1NB, 1NS, 1NL)

As of the time of writing...

all 20 Conservatives were appointed on the advice of ("by") Harper. 11 other Senators appointed by harper are in other groups (2 in the ISG, 7 in the CSG, and 2 Independent.)
The 4 (remaining) senators appointed by Martin are split 2-2 CSG-PSG
The 8 by Chretien have 3 in the ISG, 1 in the CSG, 3 in PST, and 1 Independent. 
The 51 by Trudeau have 39 in the ISG, the 3 pro-government Independents, 6 in the PSG, and 3 in the CSG. 

The ISG has at least 1 Senator from each province. The other groups have at least 2 Senators from each of the 4 senate regions. 

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