Monday, December 21, 2020

21DEC2020 update

This might be the final update for the year, pending how things go in places like Israel (IE if an election looks likely, I will post again)


Still trying to figure out a "hook" for a post on Romania; IE what's the narrative of what has happened. The numbers are that the government (PSD) has dropped from 154 to 111 seats, while the main opposition (PNL) has gone from 69 to 93 seats. Things look worse for the government in the Senate; while the governing Social Democrats did win a plurality, the centre-right National Liberals may find it easier to build a governing coalition. Will update when a new government forms. 


The Maduro government managed to win an overwhelming majority in Parliament in elections largely boycotted by the opposition. They now have 253 seats of the 277 in the chamber. They won 4.3M votes, compared to the 5.6M they won in the previous election; Turnout was down to 31% from 74%


Current poll average is as follows; plus the change from the poll average prior to the formation of new hope.

28 - Likud (-1)
19 - New Hope (+19)
14 - Yesh Atid (-4)
13 - Yamina (-9)
11 - Joint List (-1)
8 - Shas (+-0)
8 - UTJ (+-0)
7 - Yisrael Beiteinu (-1)
6 - Meretz (+-0)
6 - Blue and White (-3)

Just a note that is is very unlikely many if any voters are going directly from Joint List to New Hope. Rather, this is likely due to natural poll jitter. Joint List, however, is down from 15 at the previous election; but their drop seemed to match a rise in the polling fortunes of Yesh Atid as well as Blue and White.

1 comment:

  1. The opposition has formed a government in Romania. It is lead by the PNL and includes the USR-PLUS and the UDMR. And the non-Hungarian ethic parties typically support the government (whatever it is) from the outside.