Thursday, September 24, 2020

Update 24SEP2020

 Note that soon I'll be doing a Legislature update across Canada, but, not today. I will, however, start at home.

Both BC and SK are having elections. in Saskatchewan, the polls show the PC Party at 12%, and in BC, they show the Conservatives at 8%. It is not unusual for polls to show "Conservative" parties high in these provinces, despite the fact that the small-c conservative party, has a different name. I have a friend from Alberta who still calls the federal party the "PC Party" despite the fact that the party he is thinking vanished nearly 20 years ago. It is therefore not a surprise that Canadians who don't spend all the time reading about politics on obscure political blogs might respond to a provincial poll with a federal opinion outside of an election period.

Correcting for this, we find the BC NDP in Majority territory. The only question is how many current BC Conservative poll respondents will end up voting BC Liberal. If the number is high, than, while the NDP should still be able to capture a Majority of the seats, it might be a narrow majority. That, however, would also depend on the NDP being overpolled. If the August 28th Ekos poll is correct, the NDP leads the BC Liberals by a two-to-one margin. If this held, the NDP would win wide swaths of the province and pick up dozens of seats. 

In the end I've decided to hedge my bets and put the NDP at the lowest I think they will get, and simply bump up my prediction as more polls come in. As such, my current thinking is 45 seats for the NDP, followed by 39 for the BC Liberals, and 3 for the BC Greens. 

Saskatchewan will also be voting this fall. I do not have a prediction for the province, as, polls generall show results similar to the last election. Excepting the one showing the PC Party at 12%, the most recent polls show the Saskatchewan Party at between 57%-60%, and the NDP between 28%-32%. This contrasts with 62.4% for the SKP in the last election, and 30.2% for the NDP. In short, the NDP might pick up one, two, or even as many as three seats. If these numbers hold, the NDP gaining 6 seats would be seen as a 'win' for the party. Despite that, even such a gain only pushes the NDP from 10 to 16 seats, VS a Saskatchewan Party reduced to 45 seats. In other words, unless there's a drastic shift in the polls, the Saskatchewan Party is going to be re-elected to another large majority. A fourth term is not unheard of in SK, the previous NDP government was elected to 4 terms. In fact, the first Government lasted 6 terms (winning elections in 1905, 1908, 1912, 1917, 1921, and 1925). The Saskatchewan Party, however, holds the record for longest non-NDP/CCF government since then. 

There are also a few updates from elections around the world. Bolivia polling suggests Mesa will defeat Arce. The Queensland LNP is set for a victory. Yamina continues to be popular in Israel. 

Italy had a referendum, which I'll discuss more closer to the next election, alongside a number of regional elections. These elections indicate that FdI, the Brothers of Italy, the neo-nationalist party, has taken first place as the lead right-wing party, in southern Italy. I ill discuss the consequences of that in future posts. 


  1. If the PC won a riding or even some ridings which riding or ridings do you think they would win?

    1. Sask? too random to say. Would depend on the candidate.