Friday, November 8, 2019

Spanish election (again)

On Sunday, Spain goes to the polls for the second time this year. Looking at projections, the following may be expected:

119 PSOE social democratic
89 PP conservative
50 VOX nationalist
35 UP far left
14 Cs centrist
4 MAS centre left

6 PNV right wing, regionalist (basque)
2 CC conservative, regionalist (canaries)
2 NA+ centre right, regionalist (basque [loal Cs+PP])
1 PRC centre left, regionalist (cantabria)

14 ERC left wing, separatist (catalonia)
6 JXC right wing, separatist (catalonia)
4 CUP far left, separatist (catalonia)
4 EHB left wing, separatist (basque)

A right-wing alliance of PP + Cs + VOX (and NA+) would have 155 seats
A left-wing alliance of PSOE + UP + MAS would have 158 seats

Adding in regionalist parties, the right would have 163 and the left would have 159

4 seats are held by a left-wing Basque separatist party who are unlikely to back anyone. The remaining 22 seats are held by Catalan separatist parties, who, given recent history, I can not see backing any government.

This contrasts with the election earlier this year which would have had 166 left vs 157 right, with 4 basque and 23 catalan separatists.

Put another way, not much change in the general left-right balance, but some shifts between parties, especially on the right, with Cs losing 43 seats, VOX gaining 26, and PP gaining 23.

I've not been able to pin down exactly why Cs is doing so poorly, but it would seem to be a combination of their inability/refusal to support a PSOE government, and more importantly, the attractiveness of other right-wing options with their fall in the polls being mirrored by the rise of VOX.

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