Friday, August 9, 2019

Italy; the why


To understand what is going on in Italy, and more importantly, why salvini wants an election so badly, we need to look into the past.

If we look at today, we see the following.

Lega Nord is polling at 38%, up from the 17% they took in the last election; more than double the support.

5 Star is polling at 17%, down from the 33% they took last election, roughly half the support.

The Democrats are polling at 22%, up from the 19% they took in the last election.

And Forza Italia, Berlusconi's party, is polling at 8%, roughly half of the 14% they took in the last election.

Additionally, the Brothers of Italy are polling near 7%, up from the 4% they took in the last election.

Today, we see a LN+M5S government where the vote totals appear to have simply swapped. Today we see two populist parties that have two differing populist views of where to go. Today we may have difficulty of understanding why, therefore, LN would want an election beyond simply 'winning more seats'

The answer actually goes back to how things were prior to the 2018 elections.

The last polls prior to that election suggested the following:

The Governing Democrats were sitting at 21%, while Berlusconi's Forza Italia was at 16%, and their allies, Lega Nord, close behind at 14%. The 'winners' would be M5S, out ahead, at 27%

It can be easy to forget that for years, first between 1994 and 1995, then again starting in 2001, LN has been in an alliance with Berlusconi's party. In fact, and this is key; they are still in that alliance.

This is why.

The next government will not be another LN-M5S government, it would be a LN lead right-wing government. "Berlusconi's Alliance" has become "Salvini's alliance". Salvini has effectively taken it over by making LN more popular than FI.

Polls have been consistent that the right-wing alliance, that is Salvini leading LN with their traditional allies, is polling in majority territory. Another election will not simply "give LN more seats", it will give the old Berlusconi lead alliance a majority; only with Salvini at its helm.

And that, is why Salvini wants an election so badly.

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