Thursday, August 29, 2019

Italy - massive changes

There have been some pretty sudden and massive changes to politics in Italy in the past few days. I will, as usual, summarize them below.

First, the M5S-PD coalition, has, as I suspected, worked. Conte (the existing PM) is now the new PM, leading said coalition. This is still not a deal set in stone; PD has demanded either Conte, or Di Maio (M5S leader) step aside as PM/DPM respectively. With Conte continuing as PM, Di Maio would then need to step down as Deputy Prime Minister. Additionally, M5S is all about the grassroots, and an online vote of members still needs to approve the new government.

The most radical change has been in the polls. I outlined a possible result in my last Italy post, where the League was sitting on 235 seats, and M5S on 125. Current polls suggest a drastic shift, back to how things were before the bottom fell out of M5S. In particular, 15 seats have transferred, so far, putting the balance at 220-140. While that may not seem like much, it means Salvini and Berlusconi no longer have a majority at the polls. Additionally, with a M5S-PD alliance, it now puts Conte at a majority in the polls leading a centre-left coalition.

It seems the boost that the League received in the polls at and after the European elections could not withstand Salvini's grab for power. This also changes Italy's governing coalition from that of a party on the New Left and New Right, to that of a party on the New Left and Old Left. If this were to continue, we'd see one of two things happen; either PD support drain to M5S, or, PD become more like M5S and dominate.

No comments:

Post a Comment