Sunday, May 12, 2019

Italy, some interesting movements

I want to start by first going over some things I've said in the past about Italy.

In February, I posted this image

and said, quote 

until the gap between PD and M5S gets smaller, nothing has actually "changed"

In another post I asked

When will M5S fall below PD, or, will it stop before it even reaches that level; if it does fall below them does M5S vanish?
and at my last update

Italy: The bottom has fallen out from under M5S and they've dropped to PD levels. This comes as Lega numbers are stable, causing a drop for the combined support for the governing parties. The main impact of this trend is the increasing likelihood that in the next election, the League and its jr ally, the various Conservative parties (Berlusconi leads the main one) could win a majority.
Since then I've noticed a poll trend that's caught my eye.

First, let me share the polling graphic

Now lets focus on just the recent polls by stretching this out

And since that is such a terrible mess, let me show you what this looks like, to me.

Rather than plunging through PD support on its way to zero, M5S support has stabilized right at or slightly above PD. Beyond that, in the past three weeks, LN has dropped about 2 point in the polls while both PD and M5S are up a point. This is what's caught my attention.

What is causing this and if it will continue will remain to be seen, but I certainly do find this of note and interesting. 

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