Sunday, December 30, 2018

More news from the Israeli election

Just a quick update that Naftali Bennett, the leader of Jewish Home, has left the party to found a new party, saying that Jewish Home was too religious. He left with Ayelet Shaked, who may, in the long term, play a major role in Israeli politics.

The new party will be similar to the old party, but far more secular. 

There's only been one poll with the new party; so what I've presented below is a bit of a mash of a poll average that heavily depends on that single poll with some additional artistic liberty taken to ensure everything adds up:

25 - Likud (Conservative, Netanyahu)
15 - Resilience (Benny Gantz)
12 - Joint List (Arab)
11 - New Right (Secular-Nationalist)
10 - Yesh Atid (Liberal)
9 - Zionist Union (Progressive)
7 - United Torah (Ultra Orthodox)
6 - Kulanu (Centrist)
6 - Meretz (Left)
6 - Yisrael Beiteinu (Right-Populist)
5 - Jewish Home (Orthodox-Nationalist)
4 - Shas (Ultra Orthodox)
4 - Gesher (Centre-Right)

It seems increasingly likely that one or more parties will fall below the threshold and likely not be able to rise above it before election day.

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