Monday, April 30, 2018

On my previous post; is an NDP majority a joke?

I've had friends suggest my last post was a joke, or otherwise simply not serious. I want to detail why this is not the case.

First of all, take a look at this fresh poll (as in it came out 30 minutes prior to my starting to write this post)

Go to page 6, and look at second choices.

54.2% of Tories have no second choice. Of those who do, nearly two thirds, 64.6%, (raw 29.5%) back the NDP as their second option. The Liberals see a similar two thirds, or 69.2% in this case (raw 45.3%) considering the NDP the second option.

Additionally, NDPers are the most likely to change their mind. Normally the media will tell you this means they will do poorly, but in the elections I've seen in the past decade, more often than not, parties with low 'very certain' numbers are actually the ones that 'swing voters' are rushing to. This does not indicate that the core NDP voter is debating voting Liberal, it indicates that the core NDP voter is being swamped by people who are swinging to the NDP for this election and, perhaps, this election alone.

Horwath has as many positives as Ford does, but half the negatives.

This is just from one poll that came out under an hour ago. Other polls show similar numbers. What I'd like to remind everyone in terms of context is this,_2015#Opinion_polls

Take a look at NDP numbers, especially in the months leading up to the election call. In March Mainstreet had them at 18. February saw 17, December was 18, November was 16. Notice what happened as the election got closer. Insights had them at 22 in March, and ThinkHQ had them at 26.

On April 7th the writ was dropped. Polls showed them at 26 and 28. Once polling got into full swing, the party never dropped below 30.

The party nearly doubled its vote totals, according to the polls, in a very short period of time before, during and just after the writ being dropped.

Now take a look at this.,_2018#Opinion_polls

Notice how for months polls have had the NDP at a roughly stable level at or below 24. Any poll showing them above 24 was quite distant from any other showing them above 24.

In March this started to change a bit, and now, as we look at the second half of April, we see the NDP on the rise.

The 5 most recent polls have them at 26, 27, 21.3, 28, and 20.7. More importantly is they show all the signs of being able to potentially grow, whereas both the PC Party and Liberals show signs of potentially being closer to the top end of what they can achieve, with voters picking one due to hate of the other as opposed to actual support of their option.

I also caution against the 2 month average wikipedia provides. One reason why I have historically consistently outperformed other bloggers like is the fact that I use much smaller poll averages, of 5, or at most, 10 polls. This allows me to pick up swings and trends and momentum. Consider that a 2 month average, a week prior to the call of the 2015 Alberta election, would have had the NDP under 20 points.

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