50 - FG
44 - FF
23 - SF
7 - LAB
34 - OTH
Among the others
12 - Independent
6 - AAA-PBP
6 - Independent Alliance
4 - Independents 4 Change
3 - SocDem
2 - Greens
1 - Workers (WAUG)
Among the Independents:
Both Healy-Rae brothers are truly "independent" in all aspects of the word, and lean towards populist politics.
Collins wishes to ally himself with the Healy-Rae brothers.
Pringle, Zappone, and O'Sullivan are all quite left.
Lowry is a bit of a pariah.
Naughten is centre-right, and pro-rural.
McGrath, Connolly, Grealish, and Harty are all a bit difficult to pin down, and seem to have specific concerns.
As such I would break things down as follows:
4 - Non-Government (would not sit in government, or, would not be offered a spot)
4 - Pro-Government (would likely make a fair deal with any coalition)
3 - Left
1 - Right
For an end result of:
50 - FG
44 - FF
23 - SF
7 - LAB
6 - AAA-PBP
6 - IND-All
4 - IND4C
4 - N-G
4 - P-G
3 - SocDem
3 - Left IND
2 - Green
1 - WAUG
1 - Right IND
Among this group, AAA-PBP, and SF will not be in any coalition lead by FG or FF.
Labour claims to feel the same way, but I have my doubts. The Social Democrats also say they'd need a pretty convincing deal, but I also think they can be swayed.
The N-G members would never go, as, likely, would the Left IND or WAUG members. This means that there are only 17 Independents that would sit in a coalition, 27 if you count Labour and the SocDems. That's not enough for a majority even with FG.
As such, a FG-FF coalition is the only one that could obtain a majority. All other options mean a minority government, and, a likely election in 6 to 18 months.
I also made an interesting map, showing the final eliminated (losing) candidate in each district. Adding this to the real results would result in the following:
67 - FG
51 - FF
29 - SF
12 - LAB
6 - AAA-PBP
6 - IND-All
5 - SocDem
5 - P-G
4 - IND4C
4 - N-G
3 - Left IND
2 - Green
2 - Right IND
1 - WAUG
1 - Renua
A majority would be roughly 100 in this fantasy parliament;
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