Friday, February 26, 2016

Ireland - Prediction

Still on break, however, Ireland is having an election today, and I decided I'd share my prediction. Results should become clear by Sunday night.

54 - FG** (centre-right)
36 - FF (centre)
29 - SF (left)
9 - LAB** (centre-left)
6 - AAAPBP (hard left)
4 - SD (progressive)
2 - REN (right)
1 - GRN (green)
17 - IND (various)

** = current government coalition

A few predictions about where to go from here

FG will consider a minority, perhaps with Labour in tow. They'll look at a grand coalition with FF but my money says they'll opt out and try for a minority, at least, at first.

FF will likely not know what to do. A coalition with SF is unpalatable, as is a grand coalition, but they'd likely lean towards the latter if both were on the table, but, chances are, they'd prefer to be left out of government rather than going with either of the two other options.

SF is the sort of party that'd try to form a coalition with AAAPBP (for a new total of 35 seats) as well as Labour (for a new total of 44) and then approach FF, saying they are the Sr partner (with 44 seats), and thus, they should be the head of government.
The more sensible option for them is to try to form a government with FF as the Jr partner, and bring in Labour, AAAPBP, SD, the Greens, and the progressive Independents. This is what I expect them to do.

The remaining parties can only react.

Labour would likely be willing to be in the next government no matter who is in it.
AAAPBP would likely be unwilling to be in the next government no matter who is in it.
SD, Renua, and the Greens would likely join any government that makes a reasonable offer.
And despite running as Independents, at least a few can be expected to tag along as unofficial supporters of the big 3 parties, giving each a slight boost on most voting issues.

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