Tuesday, January 12, 2016

USA: 300 days out

I've decided to do another short post about the US Election. In this case, we are 300 days from the election itself; I plan to do updates at or around 200 days, 100 days, 30 days, and possibly another a few days before the ballot.

At this time, my current projection looks like this:

I believe that Sanders may well just beat Clinton. His polling matches some of that Obama had 300 days out. Trump meanwhile still leads in the Republican field; and no one has yet been able to catch him, if they are unable to get their act together, he will win.

In the final matchup, I can't see Trump winning, but it's possible if Sanders runs from the left. As such I've highlighted the "toss-up" states in a lighter colour. Ohio and Florida actually should be very close, and will likely go Blue, but I've given Trump a bit of a boost on the assumption that he will run an economic and not the "I hate ethnics and people with disabilities" campaign that he has been running to date.

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