Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Update - Israel Polling

This is a short update. The Candidate deadline for the Israeli election has passed. The Joint List, originally having 4 parties, now has 3. Ra'am has left. Ta'al, however, (lead by Tibi), will remain in the alliance. Ra'am is skirting the underside of the threshold; appears unable to make it, but, in some polls, does. Additionally, Gesher has joined with Likud, this means Likud will have a muslim on their candidate list for perhaps the first time, ever. The last note of interest is that Otzma, a party as far right as FdI/AfD, is part of the 'Religious Zionist' alliance, which is polling above the threshold. 

Polls show the following:

29 - bibi
17 - lapid
15 - haredi
13 - sa'ar
11 - bennett
9 - arabs
7 - lieberman
6 - avoda
5 - otzma
4 - left 
4 - gantz

Labor is now on the board. Both Gantz and the Left are skirting the threshold, and one (or both) may not make it in the end. 

61 seats are needed for a majority. The Haredi parties already back Bibi and will likely continue to do so. This gives him 44 seats. He would need 17 more for a majority. Lapid will not sit with him (unless he is as foolish as Gantz, which seems extraordinarily unlikely) meaning at least two other parties are needed. Otzma could well sit with Bibi, which would mean Bibi only needs 12 more seats. After leaving Likud, I can't see Sa'ar willing to sit with Bibi. Bennett may do so, and with a few more seats (the election is still over a month away, things can change) this would be a majority, if perhaps a bit unstable.

Sa'ar and Bennett have a combined 24 seats. If they tried to build a 'centrist' alliance with Lapid, they'd have 41. Such an alliance would likely include Lieberman and Labor, for a total of 52. They would need 9 more seats; the Left and Gantz could provide these seats, presuming they can boost their standing before the election. This, however, would be a massive and unwieldy alliance. 

As such, the polls currently favor Bibi's chances at re-election. 

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