Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Norway; government re-election likely

Polls are showing that the right-wing government is likely to win re-election.

As mentioned in my last post, there were tight polls, but that has changed through August.

I've been attempting to pinpoint exactly why, but this seems to be a more widespread and general feeling that a change is not needed.

Solberg, the Conservative Prime Minister, is popular. Oil prices have recently bumped up, important for this oil producing nation, and there have been increasing concerns that a Labour lead government would need support from parties that wish to reduce oil production. Additionally, the economy has performed better than expected.

Based on current polls my current projection is as follows. (L) / (R) indicate likely left or right coalitions

47 - Labour (L)
43 - Conservative (R)
28 - Progressive (R)
19 - Centre (L)
10 - Left (L)
8 - Christian Democrats (R)
7 - Greens (L)*
6 - Liberals (R)
1 - Communist (L)*

It is possible for the Greens and Liberals to fail to meet the threshold, if this only one of the parties fails to meet it, it helps the other coalition significantly. It is also possible the Communists will actually make the threshold, which would help a potential left government significantly.

This projection would see 85 (R) members elected and 84 (L) members, however, 8 of those noted with a * are parties not currently working together with the left coalition, and may thus decide to not participate in any such left coalition.

The TLDR is that the government (the right-wing coalition) is in the drivers seat, and has a good chance of winning

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