Netherlands Election - 2017

I'd like to start by jumping right into the fire and looking at the 2012 elections.

41 - VVD - Conservative
38 - PvdA - Labour
15 - PVV - Nativist
15 - SP - Socialist
13 - CDA - Christian Democrat
12 - D66 - Liberal
5 - CU - Social Conservative
4 - GL - Green Left
3 - SGP - Christian Right
2 - PvdD - Pro Animal / Environmentalist
2 - 50PLUS - Pensioner
0 - DENK - "THINK" (read below)

The Netherlands uses a proportional system, the purest of them, with a single nation-wide constituency with 150 seats, and, it appears, without a minimum threshold. Polls show all the parties listed above are polling at rates that should earn them seats, while another party, DENK (THINK in English) seems to be on course to win a single seat. They are a small party that broke off from Labour. None of the other parties are polling a high enough average to get a seat.

At the current poll average, this is the prediction:

31 - PVV - Nativist
25 - VVD - Conservative
17 - CDA - Christian Democrat
15 - D66 - Liberal
15 - GL - Green Left
13 - SP - Socialist
11 - PvdA - Labour
9 - 50PLUS - Pensioner
6 - CU - Social Conservative
4 - PvdD - Pro Animal / Environmentalist
3 - SGP - Christian Right
1 - DENK - Labour Split


Given the number of parties, I'll group a few together.

32 - Moderate
32 - Left-wing
31 - Nativist
25 - Conservative
11 - Labour
9 - Pensioner
9 - Right-wing
1 - Labour Split

The most natural base grouping is VVD (Conservative) with CDA and D66 (Moderate)

57 - Potential Government
32 - Left-wing
31 - Nativist
11 - Labour
9 - Pensioner
9 - Right-wing
1 - Labour Split

19 more would be needed for a majority. PvdA (Labour) and 50PLUS (Pensioner) could achieve this, but minority governments have ruled before in the Netherlands.

Important as well is the Senate, which is elected by the provincial assemblies. Using the above groupings, it stands as such:

35 - Potential Government
15 - Left-wing
9 - Nativist
8 - Labour
2 - Pensioner
5 - Right-wing
0 - Labour Split
1 - 'Independent'

The addition of Labour would give them a majority in the Senate, while the Pensioners would leave them 1 short.


Consider that for the "Left" parties to form a government, they would need to ally with not just Labour and the Pensioner party, but also with D66, a decidedly moderate Liberal party. Even then they do not have a majority in either house. (67 and 35) and would require the slightly right of centre CDA for legislative support.



With that in mind, my current thinking is a VVD-CDA-D66 government, with PvdA, and 50PLUS possibly joining in.

In my next post I will explain more about the political history of the Netherlands. (I do realize this is a bit backwards, but I wanted to set the stage of the modern election before looking at the past, as everything is in context.