Thursday, January 19, 2017

Kevin O'Leary is not Donald Trump

With O'Leary entering the Conservative Party leadership race, there are many stories about how he is a Donald Trump. There are many reasons why this is simply not true. My Northern Ireland history post will have to be pushed back to tomorrow.

First, O'Leary has only been "famous" since around 2006. Trump, meanwhile, became famous during the 80s, and was well known by the 90s.

Secondly, O'Leary's "success" is all based on his talking, whereas Trump has towers with his name on it seemingly all over the place.

Next, O'Leary is horrible not looking like a fool. Trump has much better at it, even when he's making fun of a disabled reporter, he can still come across dignified enough to have millions vote for him. O'Leary, meanwhile, just seems to irritate people.

O'Leary's polling does not match Trump. Note, however, that leadership polls over a month our are horrendously inaccurate in Canada. In short, Trump had more of a lead, and fewer strong challengers.

O'Leary does not have the same "personal touch" Trump does. People like O'Leary because he's unlikable, while people like Trump because he's likable. Trump knows how to act like a smooth talking businessman, while O'Leary's 'charm' is that he's as smooth as gravel.

And I've not even touched on policy.

Trump is a nativist, and his policies have been gobbled up by Kellie Leitch. Perhaps if Leitch and O'Leary were a single person, you could make a Trump comparison, but that is not the case.

O'Leary is also more liable to tell the poor that they are at fault for their situation. Trump sold his entire message to the less well off, while O'Leary has always focused his message on people more like himself.

O'Leary has talked about politics before and nearly all of his venom is saved for taxes and regulation. Trump always had a more wide ranging set of policy ideas, including things like immigration and culture. Again, it is Leitch who is taking up that banner.

And that does not even touch on the differences between Canada and the US.

O'Leary, if he wins, will become Leader of the Opposition. He will need to win a seat, and have a local riding to represent. A President needs to do none of these things; there will be a level of security put on O'Leary that Trump never faced.

Additionally, the Press is not as mistrusted here as they are in the US. Consider that the plurality american voters listed Fox News as their primary source of news, while Sun News failed and is off the air.

In many states, "only" Republicans could vote in the primary; this meant around 1/3rd of all voters. Others just let anyone vote, whereas this Conservative leadership will have, at most, 0.5% of voters casting ballots.

Lastly, due to the way Primaries work VS the way our leadership elections do. Trump won because he was an outsider to the Republican Party, but with only party members (IE insiders) allowed to vote in Canada, O'Leary can't win using any strategy remotely similar.

In short
O'Leary is not a Trump
He's a Prentice

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